Dr. Ofer Israeli is a visiting researcher at the Center for Peace & Security Studies (CPASS), at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service. He is doing his postdoctoral research in the field of the Complexity of International Relations. The author gratefully acknowledge support from the Center of Peace and Security Studies (CPASS), at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service, and Prof. Daniel Byman. He is also grateful to Robert J. Lieber, Andrew Bennett, and Hadas Kroitoru for their most helpful comments.