Event Information
The Middle East Policy Council (MEPC), in partnership with the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington (AGSIW), held its 112th Capitol Hill Conference on Friday, April 21, 2023, on the topic “The Future of Security in the Middle East.” The event took place in the Dirksen Senate Office Building with the in-person attendees joined by a virtual audience via live broadcast. This was MEPC’s first in-person Capitol Hill Conference since early 2020.
Ambassador Richard J. Schmierer (former U.S. Ambassador to Oman; President and Chairman of the Board of Directors, Middle East Policy Council) introduced the event and provided context, and Ms. Bassima Alghussein (Executive Director, Middle East Policy Council) moderated the discussion. The panelists were: Ambassador Douglas A. Silliman (President, The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington; Former U.S. Ambassador to Iraq, Kuwait), The Honorable Mary Beth Long (Former Assistant Secretary of Defense, Department of Defense); Prof. David B. Des Roches (Associate Professor, Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, National Defense University), and Ms. Asha Castleberry-Hernandez (Security Fellow, Diversity in National Security Network; Former Senior Advisor, Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, Department of State).
Ambassador Douglas A. Silliman began by explaining that, as the Cold War ended, our once bipolar world has slowly transitioned to a multipolar landscape that can no longer be evaluated in zero-sum game terms. He asserted that many Gulf allies have lost confidence in the U.S. as a reliable security partner, especially in regard to Iranian direct and proxy threats, and these countries have responded through regional de-escalation efforts. Furthermore, the Gulf seeks greater autonomy in decision making, which has led countries to strengthen relations with China. Ambassador Silliman concluded by advising Congress to recognize that the U.S. must compete to protect its interests in the Middle East, expand on-the-ground security cooperation, and depoliticize and define our relationships with regional allies.
The Honorable Mary Beth Long suggested that the United States’ ability to shape events and persuade our partners in the Middle East may be at an all-time low. She cautioned against the United States’ self-perception as the dominant player in the Middle East, especially considering Gulf countries’ ability to align themselves in multiple camps simultaneously. Ms. Long demonstrated that these camps – be they geographic, economic, or issued based alignments – will sometimes diverge from U.S. interests and preclude a U.S. role as the senior partner. Issues of divergence include MENA countries’ growing economic and defense relationships with China and a potential decoupling of the dollar and petroleum sales by Saudi Arabia. She continued that U.S. policies have not kept pace with the changes in the Middle East; while these countries are not against the United States, they view the U.S. as a declining power and, accordingly, are pursuing their interests independently.
Prof. David B. Des Roches focused his remarks on technological issues. He highlighted the progress made by Arab states and Israel in ballistic missile defense and these countries’ ability to purchase and field the best U.S. military equipment. However, the increasing accessibility of ballistic missiles will force missile defense investment to be sustained and expanded. Professor Des Roches noted that the process for Middle East countries to assess, acquire, and field advanced weapons is likely to be far slower than the evolution of counters for these weapons, a problem that will particularly affect cyber, electronic warfare, encryption, precision targeting, and command, control, communications and intelligence (C3I) in general. Sensor development, on the other hand, may be an area where Middle Eastern states will be able to develop and field a largely indigenous capability, mainly because this development has been driven by the commercial sector. Professor Des Roches concluded by discussing the potential of Iranian nuclearization and steps the U.S. can take towards providing a more hardened infrastructure, vice weapons, as American support for countering a nuclear Iran.
Ms. Asha Castleberry-Hernandez defined the present era as one of strategic competition, and cited China as actively engaged in trying to reshape the international system. In this era, the U.S.’ historical counterterrorism interests in the Middle East will expand to incorporate both hard and soft security, including economics, technology, energy, diplomacy, health, and the military. While U.S. adversaries have spread a narrative that the United States is leaving the region, American leaders have, in reality, shifted priorities to invest more in soft power. Ms. Castleberry-Hernandez outlined the PRC’s investment in Middle Eastern civil-military entities, including ports, and infrastructure, while underscoring that China is not looking to replace the United States. She urged the U.S. to be reliable on delivering on critical security deals, expand on new alliances such as the Abraham Accords, and facilitate new partnerships.
(Image: Mehr News Agency)
Event Speakers
Ambassador Douglas A. Silliman
President, The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
Former U.S. Ambassador to Iraq, Kuwait
Former Assistant Secretary of Defense, Department of Defense
Associate Professor, Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, National Defense University
Ms. Asha Castleberry-Hernandez
Security Fellow, Diversity in National Security Network
Former Senior Advisor, Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, Department of State
