Can Sudan’s Democratic Transition Be Salvaged?

Sudan’s democratic transition following the ousting of Omar Al-Bashir in 2019 was from the start an uphill struggle. Three decades of Islamist military dictatorship, multiple internal conflicts, widespread poverty, and depleted state coffers all weighed heavily on the political authorities tasked with forging a new democratic system. Yet, there was hope in Sudan, at least for a time, particularly after the United Nations helped broker the historic 2020 Sudanese peace agreement between a coalition of rebel groups and the interim authorities. Then, between September and October 2021, Sudan’s transition unraveled. Why did Sudan reach this point? And can its transition still be salvaged? This essay reviews the latest developments and argues that the October 2021 military coup was not a surprise but instead the foreseeable culmination of a power grab long in the making. The essay also lays out the steps that could improve the likelihood of a democratic transition in Sudan and offers a cautionary note about the many challenges ahead.