President Donald Trump used his trip to the Gulf as an opportunity not just for self-enrichment but to bluntly challenge decades of American policy, promising that he would offer Iran’s leadership “a new path and a much better path toward a far better and more hopeful future.” A new open-access article in Middle East Policy by Thomas Juneau contends that this new turn would not be possible if the Islamic Republic had not just suffered an “annus horribilis.”
Juneau analyzes the “mounting losses” suffered by Tehran and its allies throughout 2024:
Israel pounded Hamas in the Gaza Strip; the group has not been vanquished but is severely weakened. Hezbollah, long the jewel in the crown of Iran-backed armed groups, also suffered heavy blows at the hands of Israel, especially in the second half of the year. The Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, the only state among the Islamic Republic’s regional partners, collapsed in December after a rebel offensive that lasted less than two weeks.
And perhaps most important, “Tit-for-tat exchanges with Israel in April and October humiliatingly illustrated Iran’s relative conventional military inferiority.” Juneau contends that Israel was able to dominate without even deploying all of its military capabilities and that Iran knows the next exchange could be devastating to the regime.
Juneau details the ways that Iran could regain some of its footing. The Houthis have proved resilient and are still able to strike Israel. More important, Tehran has learned that it cannot rely on conventional forces; therefore, it is “likely to double down on its missile and drone programs.” And it can continue to exploit state fragility in places like Syria and Iraq, increasing its influence among Shiite armed groups.
The Trump administration’s renewed negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program are part of what Juneau argues is a “new normal in the regional balance of power.” While there is some speculation that the American president is willing to make a deal without Israel’s blessing, the article notes that there are several obstacles: Iran does not trust Washington to live up to a deal, and it has been so weakened that Israel might be able to attack key sites without direct help from the Americans.
Still, Juneau says, it is too early to assume that we know where this is going: “The coming years will undoubtedly see aggressive Iranian efforts to claw back its losses.”
Thomas Juneau’s article, “Iran’s Annus Horribilis in 2024: Beaten, but Not Defeated,” is forthcoming in the Summer 2025 Middle East Policy. You can find an early view of articles for that issue through this link. And our Spring 2025 journal analyzes the latest developments in Gaza, Syria, and across the region.