The International Atomic Energy Agency this week demanded that Iran account for the damage to its nuclear facilities from the June war with Israel and provide details on its enriched uranium, according to media reports. An open-access article in the Fall 2025 issue of Middle East Policy contends that the Islamic Republic is determined to hold onto power and that it will need greater incentives to loosen its interest in regime survival and cooperate with the West.
Our 165th installment also examines dehumanization in Gaza; Iran’s reaction to the June 2025 war with Israel; conflict and cooperation in regional economics; and the effects of crises in Lebanon and Syria on a range of actors, from Russia to Arab nationalists to medical professionals. Five of the original articles are free to read, even for those of you without a subscription. Readers can still access our special issue, The October 7 Emergencies, which illuminates the effects of the regional conflagration of the last two years. If you find this newsletter useful, please forward to others you believe will benefit, and please follow us on the social media sites X, Bluesky, and LinkedIn.
In her open-access analysis, Banafsheh Keynoush examines Iran’s demands since the unprecedented war with Israel, as well as the European moves to ratchet up pressure on the regime. Tehran has proved defiant. In the weeks following the strikes on several nuclear sites, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi insisted on respect for Iranian sovereignty and “further asserted that, regardless of the outcome of the war with Israel and the United States, Iran retains the internal knowledge to rebuild its capacity.”
However, Keynoush observes, the war has divided Iranian officials. President Masoud Pezeshkian “joined reformist factions in urging the government to return to talks.” Hardliners erupted, accusing Pezeshkian of “surrender” and demanding he “watch his mouth.” And while Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has suggested he may be open to negotiations, he insists there will be no compromise. “The regime’s quest for survival will not depend on any type of US security guarantee,” Keynoush writes, “only on its internal elite networks.”
Keynoush shows how the history of the nuclear crisis offers lessons for future talks. The “tight religious networks of elites” ensured that the regime held onto power despite the June bombardment, and they will continue to dominate. Further, she argues, the regime will focus on rebuilding domestic control before committing to negotiations. Finally, Iran’s weakness in the face of the US-Israel alliance will force it to bolster relations with China and Russia, seeking their protection of the nuclear program.
While suggesting there may be a route back to talks, Keynoush emphasizes that this would require major shifts in approach from both Iran and the United States:
Washington and Tehran could return to negotiations and even achieve mutual compromise, such as limiting Iran’s enrichment capacity in exchange for relief of sanctions on Iranian defense programs, the rebuilding of homeland defenses, and the development of an advanced civilian nuclear capacity. However, the Trump administration’s continued narrative of dominating the outcome of a nuclear deal, and the Iranian elite’s consensus over unlimited enrichment and breaking US hegemony, are major obstacles.
Dehumanization of Disregard: The Case of Gaza
Yagil Levy—open access!
THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC’S HOMELAND CONFLICTS
The June 2025 Israeli War: Iran’s Assessment and Regional Consequences
Ali Bagheri Dolatabadi—free to read!
The Perils of Nuclear Talks after the US-Israel War on Iran
Banafsheh Keynoush—open access!
The 2022 Iran Protests: The View from the Streets
Rauf Rahimi | Sajjad Rezaei
EFFECTS OF REGIONAL TRADE AND ECONOMICS
Arab-Israeli Gas Diplomacy: Interdependence and a Path Toward Peace?
Gawdat Bahgat
The Development and Political Effects of a Pan-Arab Corporate Elite
Hannes Baumann | Alice Hooper—open access!
The Corridor War in the Middle East
Arash Reisinezhad | Arsham Reisinezhad
FALLOUT FROM SYRIAN AND LEBANESE CRISES
After Assad: How Russia Is Losing the Middle East
Namig Abbasov | Emil A. Souleimanov—open access!
Forgotten Fighters in Their Own Words: Pan-Arab Volunteers in Syria-Iraq
Djallil Lounnas | Israa Mezzyane
The Factors Driving Lebanon’s Medical Brain Drain
Mohamad Zreik | Houssein Mallah | Mohamad Mokdad
BOOK REVIEWS
Javad Heiran-Nia, Iran and the Security Order in the Persian Gulf
Reviewed by Mahmood Monshipouri
Rob Geist Pinfold, Understanding Territorial Withdrawal: Israeli Occupations and Exits
Reviewed by Nathaniel Shils
Steffen Hertog, Locked Out of Development: Insiders and Outsiders in Arab Capitalism
Reviewed by Ahalla Tsauro
Gilbert Achcar, Gaza Catastrophe: The Genocide in World-Historical Perspective; and Erik Skare, Road to October 7: A Brief History of Palestinian Islamism
Reviewed by A.R. Joyce