The Syrian Arab Republic under Bashar al-Assad collapsed following a major offensive by opposition groups, marking the end of his two-decade rule amid sustained military defeats and internal dissent. The announcement followed the decisive capture of Damascus by opposition forces, a coalition of the extremist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Turkish-backed Syrian National Army units, and a growing grassroots resistance within previously government-held territories.
Military Collapse
- Damascus falls: Rebel forces seized key government buildings in the capital on December 13, solidifying their control over the city.
- Rebel advances: Following their victory in Aleppo at the end of November, opposition forces rapidly gained control of over 70% of Syrian territory, including critical military installations and supply routes.
- Government forces put up little resistance as the rebels advanced from city to city, taking Aleppo, Hama, and Homs in quick succession, which cut off Damascus from the coast and Assad’s primary base of support.
- Russian withdrawal: Russian forces have since pulled out of key areas of Syria. Troops and vehicles were seen withdrawing from the south on Friday toward their primary base in the Latakia province.
- Satellite imagery from this week reveals further movement on Russian bases, suggesting a partial or, potentially, full withdrawal from Syria.
- Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow before the collapse of the capital and has since been granted asylum by Russia.
Civilian Impact
- The UN estimates that over 320,000 civilians have returned since October, with the total number of displaced individuals in Syria surpassing 14 million.
- Over 3,000 people, including 400 children, have died in clashes since November 29, with hospitals reporting severe shortages of critical medical supplies.
- Aid agencies, including USAID, are struggling to provide assistance to millions of Syrians affected by ongoing hostilities.
- Infrastructure collapse in major cities, including Aleppo and Damascus, has left millions without electricity, clean water, or functional healthcare facilities.
- Syria’s economy contracted by 85% during almost 14 years of civil war, which decimated infrastructure and boosted hyperinflation.
International Reactions
- Turkey: President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan hailed the developments as a massive success, stating “Turkey proves, once again; that it cannot be ignored” while reinforcing border security to manage refugee inflows.
- Russia and Iran: Both nations have expressed concerns over maintaining their strategic interests, with Iran vowing to support Shiite militias in the region.
- United Nations: The Security Council held an emergency meeting on December 14, urging all parties to commit to ceasefire negotiations and prioritize civilian protection.
New Governance
- HTS, despite being designated as a terrorist organization by the UN, EU, and U.S., has indicated a more inclusive approach than the Assad regime.
- Ahmed Al-Sharaa, the head of HTS previously known by his nom de guerre of Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, has asserted that the group wants to “make sure every minority group is represented.”
- He also expressed support for women’s education and indicated that a committee of legal experts will be writing the new constitution to establish law.
- In his interview with BBC, Sharaa emphasized that HTS should be delisted as a terrorist organization, regardless of its start as a splinter group of al-Qaeda, which it broke away from in 2016, adding that “the country is exhausted by war and is not a threat to its neighbours or to the West.”
The fall of Bashar al-Assad marks a historic turning point in the Syrian Civil War, signaling the potential for either renewed hope for reconciliation or a dangerous vacuum of power with unpredictable consequences for the region.