The Wall Street Journal reports that the United States may pull all troops from Syria after Kurdish-led forces promised to disband and join the national military. While the capitulation is a victory for Damascus, a new article in Middle East Policy shows that a much larger challenge faces Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa: the risk of a direct clash—inside the country—between Israel and Turkey, which could further destabilize the region.
The Winter 2025–26 Middle East Policy features analyses of Washington’s new model for rebuilding failed states (open access); US-Saudi relations in light of China’s increasing influence; the new order in the Red Sea (open access); the Israeli peace movement; the symbols of Palestinian nationalism (open access); the likelihood of failure in the detente between Turkey and Kurdish nationalists; Ankara’s crackdown on the opposition; and many other issues of vital interest. Also available are our special issues, The Israel-Iran War and The October 7 Emergencies. Please follow us on the social media platforms X, Bluesky, and LinkedIn.
This week’s reporting indicates that US envoy Tom Barrack admonished leaders of Syria’s Kurdish community for involving Israel in domestic affairs. But the new analysis by Buğra Sari and Avnihan Kirişik shows that Tel Aviv is likely to continue challenging the strength and unity of the Syrian state. As Turkey aims to strengthen ties with al-Sharaa and build a lasting foothold in Syria, the overlapping interests of the two regional powers “could spark unintended consequences ranging from military miscalculations to proxy confrontations.”
The authors detail Israel’s interventions in Syria, designed to frustrate Iran’s attempts to reconstitute proxies, keep hostile actors away from the northern border, and prevent al-Sharaa from unifying and strengthening the country.
The strategy is built on a hybrid approach that employs a range of military and technological tools. On the ground, the IDF [Israel Defense Forces] has imposed curfews in multiple residential areas, disarmed local groups, and seized control of positions formerly held by the Syrian Arab Army. Israel has also deployed electronic warfare systems and air defense assets to monitor and deter Iran’s logistical movements across southern Syria. Israeli drones have reportedly conducted extensive surveillance over large sections of Syrian airspace, targeting weapons convoys bound for Hezbollah or other Iran-aligned groups….The buffer zone strategy, in effect, ensures that Syria will remain weak.
At the same time, while Turkey sought to dissolve the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces—which appears to have succeeded—Ankara had the much more ambitious agenda of establishing a durable military presence, Sari and Kirişik explain.
Under a proposal that emerged from defense talks between Ankara and Damascus that began in December 2024, Turkey would provide air cover and military assistance to the new state as it begins the long road to reconstruction. Leaked reports and satellite imagery indicate that Turkish military officials have conducted field assessments at several key sites in central Syria, including Palmyra Airport, Hama Air Base, and Tiyas, or T-4, Air Base near Homs. Footholds in these locations would enhance Turkey’s operational capabilities beyond the north and into the Levant and the Syrian Desert. Joint operation of these bases under a defense cooperation framework between Ankara and Damascus would legitimize and institutionalize Turkey’s military presence.
The key part of this analysis is how these moves could draw proxies, or even Turkey and Israel themselves, into violent conflict. The authors examine two zones of friction where the two states’ interests overlap, risking overreaction or worse:
- Military infrastructure, especially air bases in central Syria: Ankara sees them as essential to its defense and influence; Israel believes they can be used by enemies to threaten its security. Indeed, the Israeli Air Force struck two such bases in April 2025, just days after they were visited by Turkish personnel.
- Visions for the new Syria: Ankara sees a strong state as essential not just to thwart Kurdish independence movements but to increase its geopolitical strength. By contrast, Tel Aviv has refused to recognize al-Sharaa, exploited the country’s ethnic and religious divisions, and even launched strikes near government headquarters in Damascus. Israel also sees a united Syria as providing too many advantages to its Turkish rival.
The authors contend that these overlapping and divergent interests, as well as the actions undertaken during the past year, hold three risks: miscalculation, “the possibility of proxy and even direct confrontation.” The article makes a compelling case for mediation by regional and outside countries to take advantage of backchannels and establish tactical deconfliction mechanisms. While these efforts would initially be limited, Sari and Kirişik express hope that they could be built into a strategic dialogue that brings Turkey and Israel together “as the key stakeholders in Syria’s stabilization and as mutual guarantors of regional security.”
“The Struggle for Syria: Strategic Rivalry and the Risks of Escalation” by Buğra Sari and Avnihan Kirişik is available in the new issue of Middle East Policy.
Middle East Policy, Winter 2025
THE REGIONAL REORDERING
From Rebuilding to Restoring Political Order: A New Agenda for Failed Arab States
Guilain Denoeux | Robert Springborg—open access!
Saudi Arabia’s US-China Hedging Strategy and Its Regional Impact
Xiaoyu Wang | Salman K. Al-Dhafeeire | Degang Sun
Maritime Disruption in Yemen: The Making of a Hybrid Red Sea Order
Federico Donelli—open access!
The Struggle for Syria: Strategic Rivalry and the Risks of Escalation
Buğra Sari | Avnihan Kirişik
THE STRUGGLE FOR PALESTINE
The Israeli Peace Movement in a Time of Crisis
Natalya Philippova—free to read!
The Role of Postage Stamps in Palestinian National Identity and History
Ido Zelkovitz | Yehiel Limor—open access!
TURKISH NATIONALISM AND DOMESTIC POLITICS
Why the New Turkey-PKK Peace Process Is Likely to Fail
Michael M. Gunter
Turkey’s March 19 Protests: An End to Competitive Authoritarianism?
Göktürk Tüysüzoğlu
Athlete Queens of Modern Turkey: Beauty Pageants and Modernization
Muhammet Nurullah Çakmak
Countering Extremism in Iraq: The Influence of Ali Sistani
Hogr Tarkhani | Isaac Andakian
BOOK REVIEWS
Sareta Ashraph, Carmen Cheung Ka-Man, and Joana Cook, Holding ISIL Accountable: Prosecuting Crimes in Iraq and Syria
Reviewed by Usman Anwar | Muhammad Atif
Samer Bakkour, The End of the Middle East Peace Process: The Failure of US Diplomacy
Reviewed by Hamdullah Baycar