The instability of the post-October 7 regional order has sharply increased direct threats to Saudi Arabia’s homeland and raised questions about its diplomatic and security strategies, and it has heightened economic vulnerabilities for India. New articles in the Summer 2026 issue of Middle East Policy examine Mohammed bin Salman’s brittle hold on power in the kingdom and the reputational costs to New Delhi as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to abandon the Palestinian cause in favor of Israel.
Middle East Policy has just published its Summer 2026 double issue, featuring incisive open-access examinations of the Iran War, its causes, and its implications, including what lies ahead in the Strait of Hormuz; how President Donald Trump’s transactionalism is backfiring; how the Islamic Revolution upended regional security; Iran’s forward defense in Africa; and the effects of the war on Gulf cooperation with the Asia-Pacific. The table of contents of this special double issue is below. If you find this article useful, please forward it to others you believe will benefit. You can register to receive our weekly updates here. And please follow us on the social media platforms X and LinkedIn.
In his analysis of political stability in Saudi Arabia, Mohammed Ayoob argues that the “personalist autocracy” created by Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has allowed for centralized rule and swift policy changes, such as liberalizing personal freedoms and reducing restrictions on women’s participation in politics and society. It has also allowed for a cozy, transactional relationship with President Donald Trump. However, Ayoob contends, the break with religious and secular traditions, as well as MBS’s consolidation of power normally spread throughout the royal family, have rendered his hold on power “very brittle.”
Ayoob does not claim that there is direct evidence that MBS is in danger of losing power. However, he raises questions about the wisdom of his Iran policy: the crown prince initially advised Trump against the war, then urged him to “finish the job,” then prevented US forces from using Saudi bases or airspace, thwarting a May 2026 mission aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. “This back and forth indicates the extent to which Saudi policy is now inseparable from the calculations and instincts of one man,” Ayoob writes.
To sharpen his argument that MBS’s hold on power is “brittle,” Ayoob compares contemporary Saudi Arabia to Mohammed Reza Shah Pahlavi’s gradually weakening reign over Iran during the 1970s. The analysis reveals similarities in
- the challenges to social traditions
- poverty and wealth inequality
- top-down modernization projects
- the reduced status of religious authorities.
Ayoob warns that although there are few signs that regime change is imminent, American intelligence did not anticipate the shah’s swift fall. “Once King Salman leaves the scene,” he writes, MBS could be confronted with rivals.
This diagnosis should lead Washington to hedge its bets, Ayoob argues: “While the Iranian revolution drastically redrew the political map of the Gulf, a change of regime in Saudi Arabia would cause the United States to lose its principal ally in the Arab world, thus eroding its standing in the Middle East.”
During the decade that MBS was consolidating his rule, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was cementing his own hold on power through an ideologically driven campaign of Hindu nationalism that has profoundly reshaped New Delhi’s approach to the Middle East. Yücel Bulut contends in his open-access article that Modi has largely abandoned India’s traditional dedication to the Palestinian cause in favor of strong ties with Israel. “The relationship carries medium- to long-term reputational risk,” Bulut warns. “It could limit India’s influence in regional trade and security cooperation and negatively affect its geopolitical position.”
Bulut throws Modi’s new approach into sharp relief by contrasting it to India’s historical support for Palestine. After winning independence in 1947, New Delhi took up the anticolonial mantle and—despite formally recognizing Israel in 1950—consistently backed Palestinian rights in international forums. However, starting in 2014 with the rise of Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party, New Delhi tightly embraced Israel. Drawing on trade and defense data, Bulut shows that economic and strategic ties with Israel have expanded dramatically. The analysis also demonstrates that this is not driven purely by material interests: Bulut makes a compelling case that Modi’s Hindu nationalism has an affinity with Zionism.
Despite India’s gains from the new policy toward Israel, Bulut warns of the medium-term consequences. “By prioritizing strategic closeness to Israel, the Modi government has reduced India’s diplomatic flexibility during Middle Eastern crises—even during the Gaza war, when public opinion across the Arab world strongly opposed normalization with Israel and renewed its focus on Palestine,” he writes. “Given India’s dependence on the region for energy security, remittances, and strategic partnerships, this approach carries significant long-term economic and geostrategic risks.”
Middle East Policy, Summer 2026
Special Double Issue!
AMERICA’S WAR ON IRAN
Signals, Red Lines, and Collision: The Israel-Iran Spiral and US Intervention
Buğra Sari—open access!
Trump’s Transactional Diplomacy: Breakthrough or Breakdown?
Guilain Denoeux | Robert Springborg—open access!
Between Ideology and Strategy: The Iranian Revolution and the Reconfiguration of Middle Eastern Security
Alabbas F. Alsudani—open access!
Iran’s Forward Defense in Sub-Saharan Africa
Ariel Limanya Limbu | Ronen A. Cohen—open access!
CONSEQUENCES IN THE GULF
Crisis in the Strait of Hormuz: What Lies Ahead?
Gawdat Bahgat—free to read!
GCC-Asia Pacific Energy Nexus: Navigating Shifts in Demand and Geopolitics
Umud Shokri—open access!
Outwardly Strong, Internally Brittle: Dissecting the MBS Regime
Mohammed Ayoob—free to read!
POLITICAL CONVULSIONS OVER PALESTINE
New Political Actors in Palestine: The Digital Efficacy of Gen Z
Abdalraheem S.H. Shobaki | Mahmoud S.H. Shobaki
Between Fatigue and Fear: West Bank Student Solidarity During the Gaza War
Mert Öztürk / Oqab Jabali
Explaining Saudi Arabia’s Inaction During the Gaza War: Why No Oil Embargo?
Mazaher Koruzhde | Eric Lob—free to read!
From Palestine Ally to Zionist Partner: India-Israel Relations, 2014–2025
Yücel Bulut—open access!
REBUILDING AND RECKONING IN SYRIA
A Heuristic Equation of Transformation, Justice, and Violence in Post-Assad Syria
Zeynep Banu Dalaman—free to read!
Federalism in Post-Assad Syria: Toward Durable Peace in a Pluralist Society
Dilan Okcuoglu—open access!
REGIONAL SOCIAL & ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE
Cryptocurrency Regulation in MENA: From Prohibition to Conditional Legalization
Bassant Hassib | Fatimah Ayad
Fallen Cedar: Lebanon’s Debt Diplomacy, 2015–2020
Kevin Rosier
Plastics Pollution in the Gulf Countries: Problems and Policy Solutions
Richard Rutter et al.
Constructing Social Cohesion in Qatar: National Vision, Strategy, and Constitution
Logan Cochrane et al.
THE ATTRACTIVE POWER OF EAST ASIA
Saudi Arabia’s Deepening Engagement with Asia-Pacific Nations
Ghulam Ali
China’s Hajj-Related Infrastructure Diplomacy with Saudi Arabia
Song Niu | Danyu Wang
Chinese-Arab Scientific Cooperation and Effectiveness
Minglian Long, Yijia Luo, Yi Zhang
BOOK REVIEWS
Lynch, America’s Middle East
Reviewed by Yasir Kuoti
Denoeux, Springborg, and Alaoui, Making Aid Work
Reviewed by Naomi Sakr
Momeni, The Presidential Difference and Iran’s Foreign Policy Under Khatami from 1997 to 2005
Reviewed by Mahmood Monshipouri
Bajoghli et al., How Sanctions Work
Reviewed by Bahram P. Kalviri
Donelli, Power Competition in the Red Sea
Reviewed by Riccardo Gasco
Brownlee and Ghiabi, States Without People
Reviewed by İlhan Bilici
Karam, The Middle East in 1958
Reviewed by Elifnur Düzsöz
Uysal, Class, Capital, State, and Late Development
Reviewed by Yusuf Murteza
Greenberg, The Long War of Ideas
Reviewed by A.R. Joyce