In the late 2010s, Russia’s military and diplomatic victories in Syria appeared to cement its status as a dominant power in the region. However, a new open-access article in the Fall 2025 Middle East Policy investigates how the swift collapse of the Assad regime in December 2024 delivered strategic and reputational blows to Moscow.
The new issue of Middle East Policy is now available in an Early View. The journal’s 165th installment analyzes dehumanization in the Gaza war, the effects of Israel’s June bombings on Iran, and the potential for both regional integration and further division.
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Namig Abbasov and Emil A. Souleimanov begin their analysis of Russia’s fortunes after the ouster of Bashar al-Assad by pinpointing weaknesses even when it seemed to be ascendant. For instance, as fighting subsided, Moscow’s priorities began to diverge from its Iranian partner’s. The Islamic Republic preferred to take advantage of militias operating outside Assad’s control. Russia, by contrast, sought a recentralization in Syria so it could project power into Africa.
But the fall of the friendly regime has sparked cascading blows to its designs on the continent, the authors show. Russia has struggled to expand its influence in Africa “through a combination of arms sales, energy partnerships, and support for authoritarian regimes.” This includes engagement with Egypt, Sudan, Libya, Tunisia, and Algeria, as well as the Central African Republic, Burkina Faso, and Mali.
Moscow has long relied on its naval base at Tartus in Syria, which is now in jeopardy with the rise of a new regime. However, Abbasov and Souleimanov demonstrate, Russia faces logistical difficulties “as it works to withdraw its military assets from Syria, maintain a toehold in the Mediterranean, and extend its presence in Africa.”
The harms are not just to material resources but to Russia’s reputation. African states have seen their economies disrupted by the Ukraine war, souring some of them on relations with Moscow. And among Persian Gulf countries, despite their mutual interests in energy, Russia’s standing has taken a hit due to its failure to protect its ally in Syria and its allowing an Islamist faction to take power.
“The transactional nature of its economic ties with nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE fails to compensate for the strategic void left by Syria’s downfall,” the authors conclude. “Moreover, the delicate balancing act between Iran and GCC states has become increasingly untenable, isolating Moscow diplomatically.”
The Fall 2025 issue of Middle East Policy includes three other open-access pieces: Yagil Levy’s examination of the Israeli dehumanization of Palestinians through disregard; Banafsheh Keynoush’s analysis of the future of Iran nuclear talks; and Hannes Baumann and Alice Hooper’s tracing of a pan-Arab corporate elite through the network of transnational interlocking directorships.
As the journal prepares to launch its fall issue, there is still time to check out our special issue on the Israel-Iran War, featuring 14 original articles and four book reviews—all free to read for a limited time.
Middle East Policy, Fall 2025 Early View
Dehumanization of Disregard: The Case of Gaza
Yagil Levy—open access!
THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC’S HOMELAND CONFLICTS
The June 2025 Israeli War: Iran’s Assessment and Regional Consequences
Ali Bagheri Dolatabadi
The Perils of Nuclear Talks after the US-Israel War on Iran
Banafsheh Keynoush—open access!
The 2022 Iran Protests: The View from the Streets
Rauf Rahimi | Sajjad Rezaei
EFFECTS OF REGIONAL TRADE AND ECONOMICS
Arab-Israeli Gas Diplomacy: Interdependence and a Path Toward Peace?
Gawdat Bahgat
The Development and Political Effects of a Pan-Arab Corporate Elite
Hannes Baumann | Alice Hooper—open access!
The Corridor War in the Middle East
Arash Reisinezhad | Arsham Reisinezhad
FALLOUT FROM SYRIAN AND LEBANESE CRISES
After Assad: How Russia Is Losing the Middle East
Namig Abbasov | Emil A. Souleimanov—open access!
Forgotten Fighters in Their Own Words: Pan-Arab Volunteers in Syria-Iraq
Djallil Lounnas | Israa Mezzyane
The Factors Driving Lebanon’s Medical Brain Drain
Mohamad Zreik | Houssein Mallah | Mohamad Mokdad
BOOK REVIEWS
Javad Heiran-Nia, Iran and the Security Order in the Persian Gulf
Reviewed by Mahmood Monshipouri
Rob Geist Pinfold, Understanding Territorial Withdrawal: Israeli Occupations and Exits
Reviewed by Nathaniel Shils
Steffen Hertog, Locked Out of Development: Insiders and Outsiders in Arab Capitalism
Reviewed by Ahalla Tsauro
Gilbert Achcar, Gaza Catastrophe: The Genocide in World-Historical Perspective; and Erik Skare, Road to October 7: A Brief History of Palestinian Islamism
Reviewed by A.R. Joyce