Middle East Policy announces Israel’s Wars, a special issue devoted to the expanding conflict—free for all readers. Our experts examine the regional repercussions of the conflict in Gaza and the consequences of escalation with Iran, the long historical road to Hamas’s deadly October 7 attacks and the misconceptions that failed to stop them, and the potential for self-determination in Palestine while the United States struggles for relevance.
The edition, marking one year since the devastating assault and Israel’s reprisals, is available to everyone, even those without a subscription.
This special issue draws on the journal’s decades covering the region to provide insights into the motivations of the key actors. We interview Palestinians about the ravages of occupation, investigate Israel’s search for new military strategies and the ambition and calculations of Hezbollah, reconsider the Israel-Iran conflict, and evaluate China’s reluctance to forcefully intervene as the wars snarl international commerce.
The 12 articles and three book reviews in Israel’s Wars are available through this link. You can also access our previous special issue, The Gaza War. Published just after October 7, this is a vital examination of the sparks that fueled the Hamas strikes and their aftermath.
You can visit our website for updates on the conflict and breaking analyses from around the region. Subscriptions to the quarterly journal are available here.
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Here’s a look at the articles in the special issue Israel’s Wars:
THE CONSEQUENCES OF ESCALATION
Forward to the Past? Regional Repercussions of the Gaza War, by Morten Valbjørn, André Bank, and May Darwich
- After the 1967 war, the Palestinian issue was at the center of the Middle East, shaping how Arab regimes interacted with Israel. Up until the Arab Spring, Palestine was a major factor in both regional and domestic politics.
- In the 2010s, the issue had been left behind in political debates at the international level and was no longer a driver of regional foreign policy. At the same time, the Arab public remained “strongly supportive of the Palestinian cause,” which revealed a growing regimes-people divide.
- The Gaza war reflects a shift in regional politics from the Arab uprisings and a partial return to pre-2011 dynamics, centering the Palestine issue. Hamas pursued a strategy of unity with other anti-Israel actors in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, increasing the perception of an Axis of Resistance. In turn, the Sunni-Shia divide, a dominating debate in post-2011 regional politics, is less relevant, as is the Saudi-Iran rivalry.
Reinforcing the Resistance: Iran and the Levant in a Multipolar Middle East, by Edward Wastnidge
- Syria is an arena in which Iran and Hezbollah can exploit Assad’s close relationship with Russia to strengthen their own ties with Moscow. This has reinforced the perception of the Axis of Resistance as an anti-hegemonic alliance against the US and the West.
- Iran’s grand strategy since 2011 has been to grow and secure its influence as a regional power. Two main facets of this have been a desire to build a land corridor stretching from its borders to the Mediterranean Sea and the creation of a Shi’ite alliance network. Syria has been an essential component of both objectives.
- Lastly, Syria provides Iran with a first line of defense from its main rival, Israel. The IRGC’s infrastructure in the country acts as a deterrence for Israeli aggression towards Iran, as it would make an immediate counterattack easier.
Security in Neutrality: Chinese Engagement in the Middle East and the Red Sea Crisis, by Christopher K. Colley and Joshua R. Goodman
- Unlike the United States, China has no interest in attempting to shape politics in the Middle East or risking any involvement in regional conflicts, and has been content to work within the existing, American-led paradigm to pursue its economic interests.
- China has three primary preferences in its approach to the region: diplomacy, free riding, and, if necessary, military engagement. The Chinese navy has little experience in the open ocean and has only been present in the region to combat piracy off the coast of Somalia.
- In the context of the Gaza war and the Red Sea crisis, it could be argued that China is a “free rider” when it comes to conflict resolution. A response to this would be that the country’s main strategy focuses on prevention of conflict through the creation of mutually beneficial partnerships, rather than direct involvement.
THE GAZA WAR: CAUSE AND EFFECT
What Went Wrong? Israeli Misconceptions And the October 2023 Surprise, by Gadi Hitman
- Israel’s failure to prevent the October 7 attacks by Hamas was the result of failures at three levels: intelligence, operational, and political.
- Though Hamas created a false sense of security by not firing missiles into Israel for a relatively long time, some intelligence indicated the possibility of an attack; however, there was a lack of proper assessment of this data.
- Israel’s protective operational measures, including the Iron Dome and border fence, increased the IDF’s complacency. An overreliance on technology for security measures led to the withdrawal of a significant military presence along the border.
- Ever since Netanyahu entered office, he has failed to pursue any sort of political settlement with Palestinians, instead to disparage the PA for its ineffectiveness and boosting Hamas. This split has made it impossible to reach a peace settlement.
Lessons for Israel’s Gaza War in America’s Strategic Blunders, by Mahmood Monshipouri
- US mistakes in Afghanistan and Iraq could provide a learning opportunity for Israel, illustrating that an extended overreliance on military force often fails to address key issues and exacerbates extremist ideology and recruitment.
- Israel’s use of excessive force has bolstered the previously unpopular Hamas inside and outside of Gaza; reliance on military means and continued resistance to negotiation means Israel is failing to seek a political solution to the inherently socio-political conflict behind the war.
- Jerusalem has several options to end the war, but unless it works towards a peace-oriented solution that recognizes the right of Palestinians, Hamas will not be destroyed.
The Gates of Gaza, by Amir Tibon; reviewed by A.R. Joyce
- The current political culture in Israel alternates between three extremes: “ignoring the Palestinian question; actively scuttling the two-state solution; and allowing the current right-wing leadership to both prepare for the annexation of the West Bank and encourage the funding of Hamas.”
- Netanyahu both contributed to the right-wing backlash against the proposal of a two-state solution and exploited it to reach the top of Israeli politics. Tibon reveals Netanyahu’s complicity in Hamas’s survival and its ability to carry out the October 7 attack.
- Nahal Oz, a kibbutz just a mile from the Gaza border, was a place of hope for co-existence between Palestinians and Israelis, yet it bore the brunt of the October 7 massacre. Tibon, a resident, analyzes how the Israeli state, over the decades, chose to militarily strengthen its defenses instead of advancing the cause of peace, gradually degrading any peacemaker role that the community could have played.
WHAT THE ACTORS WANT
Interviews from Gaza: Palestinian Options Under Siege, by Roger Gaess
- The Palestinian Authority is unable to function when it is under so much pressure from the US and Israel to impose order, and while Israel is simultaneously expanding its occupation. Without an end to the occupation, people are bound to flock to Hamas, even out of desperation.
- Elections are still essential in the Palestinian territories to allow for the rotation of power, ensure accountability, renew the legitimacy of institutions, and restore vitality to the political system.
- Hamas is a part of Palestinian pluralism, like a conservative or right-wing party in other countries. Despite their violent tactics in response to the Israeli occupation, they must be included in the government.
Rethinking Hezbollah’s Disarmament, by Bilal Y. Saab
- Hezbollah is “first and foremost a Lebanese Shia Islamist group whose raison d’être is to pursue its ideal of establishing an Islamic order in Lebanon, whether by force or by persuasion”
- The organization is under the direct influence of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Instead of a patron-client relationship, Hezbollah has more of a “father-son relationship” with Iranian leadership.
- As such, the way to deal with Hezbollah’s military arsenal is by achieving peace between the US and Iran through diplomatic negotiations. In order to achieve this, Washington would have to provide Iran with a “security guarantee,” which is highly unlikely to happen in the current political climate.
The Iran-Israel Conflict: An Ultra-Ideological Explanation, by Farshad Roomi
- Iran intends through anti-Israel actions and messaging to internally mobilize its populace and, externally, to claim the leadership of the Muslim world and strike a balance against a regional nuclear power.
- This article uses a critique based on constructivism and realism to argue that Iran’s adoption of this approach without taking its internal and external capacities into consideration has ironically bolstered the Israeli far right, increased global sympathies for Israel, escalated Iranophobia, aligned conservative Arab states with Israel, and marginalized the issue of Palestine.
‘Decisive Victory’ and Israel’s Quest For a New Military Strategy, by Jean-Loup Samaan
- This article analyzes the General Staff’s bid to change the way the armed forces fight and to redefine battlefield victory.
- The evolution of nonstate, irregular threats like Hamas and Hezbollah, the potential of facing multiple fronts, and experience with asymmetric warfare is driving the transformation.
- Decisive Victory focuses on achieving a quick end to a potential conflict with the use of overwhelming force to destroy enemy capabilities. It requires a restructuring of military leadership.
IS THERE A ROAD TO PEACE?
The Balfour Declaration a Century Later: Accidentally Relevant, by Ian S. Lustick
- The Balfour Declaration was haphazardly constructed, without a plan as to how it would be implemented. As a result of this confusion, it seems to support the establishment of a national home for both the Jewish and Arab populations within the same state.
- Similarly to the Third Home Rule Bill in in 1913, regarding the right of Catholics to rule within Ireland, the term “home” (as it is used in the Balfour Declaration) can be understood as a commitment not to a state, but to honor the desire for national political autonomy and cultural self-expression.
- As a result, this distinction between state and nation can provide a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian context. The ideal scenario, as suggested in the document, would entail one state (administrative framework) with two nations within it.
The Fadeout of the Pax Americana in the Middle East, by Chas W. Freeman Jr.
- America has served as a primary regulator in the Middle East for decades, but its recent shift toward Asia has reduced regional states’ confidence in their longtime partner. Among these is Israel, who maintains strong ties with the US but is diversifying by engaging with states that Washington is more hesitant to become close with.
- Washington, facing pressure from its citizens, has not only been pushed to ease out of the Middle East in recent years, but also is facing criticism for its staunch support for Israel. Because Israel no longer visibly shares the moral values of the West, it is finding itself increasingly estranged.
- Meanwhile, the lauded Abraham Accords have given greater power to Israel to pull away from the US as it normalizes its regional ties, but the move has raised concerns from MENA states that Israel may be increasingly unchecked without Washington’s management. Many also signed on with the belief that the Accords would be a temporary agreement for the current political climate, rather than an attempt to establish a new one.
BOOK REVIEWS
The Arc of a Covenant, by Walter Russel Mead, and We Are Not One, by Eric Alterman; review essay by Michael Rubner
Searching for Peace, by Ehud Olmert; reviewed by Jerome Slater
Paradigm Lost, by Ian S. Lustick; reviewed by Lawrence Davidson