Kurdish-Led Forces Negotiate for Autonomy in Syria’s New Government

  • Straight from the Source provides a timely synopsis of commentary and news from Middle Eastern media outlets to shed light on breaking developments and opinions that are underrepresented in U.S. media

As the dust settles following the sudden toppling of Bashar al-Assad’s rule on December 8, the eyes of the international community are on the new administration of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) as it attempts to negotiate a sustainable peace in a country decimated by conflict for over a decade. Though party commander Ahmed al-Sharaa has made progress in consolidating the fragmented Syrian political and military landscape, the important question of what role the autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) has to play in the state’s future remains unanswered, with meaningful implications for long-term stability in the country. 

The AANES, frequently called ‘Rojava,’ is a Kurdish-led but multiethnic coalition that has maintained relative autonomy from the Assad regime over the past decade. Its powerful military wing, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), served as an important bulwark against the Islamic State at its peak and still benefits from continued American support in the region. 

The enduring autonomy of the AANES presents one of the most salient challenges to the new Syrian administration’s mission to centralize state authority. The success of ongoing negotiations between HTS and the SDF is an important early test of the durability of a new Syrian peace. 

Sources in the region are cautiously optimistic about the present negotiations, but warn that bloodshed between these powerful military actors remains a distinct possibility.

According to the New Arab, multilateral negotiations incorporating the U.S. and Turkey are ongoing to establish a security agreement between the competing military groups. The SDF’s refusal to fully integrate into the Syrian National Army (SNA), however, remains a major sticking point for the new administration. Arab News reports that the groups share a “common view of where things should end up” and a mutual “sense of urgency” to resolve the issue in a timely manner, but rhetorical escalations and militia clashes this week have raised concerns about whether the negotiations can be completed peacefully. 

In a statement to reporters, new Syrian Minister of Defense Murhaf Abu Qasra signalled a limited tolerance for compromise, saying that the “door to negotiation with the (Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces) is currently open, [but] if we have to use force, we will be ready.” Qasra also noted that the SDF is the only major military group in the country that declined to join “an agreement on the dissolution of all the groups and their integration under the supervision of the ministry of defence,” and warned that “all weapons must be in the hands of the state. If anyone, regardless of who they are, possesses weapons without the state’s approval, things will spiral out of control.”

SDF Commander Mazloum Abdi, however, pushed back on Qasra’s statements by “categorically rejecting” the disarmament or dissolution of the SDF and instead proposing the integration of his forces into the Defense Ministry as a “separate military bloc.” Damascus rejected this proposal on January 19, apparently indicating that the central issue of the negotiations could end in an all-too-familiar stalemate.

The situation on the ground is further complicated by HTS’ ties with Ankara on the one hand, and the SDF’s apparent links with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) on the other. Al Monitor reported last month on the close ties between senior officials in the new Syrian government and Turkey, and Ankara’s allegations that the SDF trains and harbors PKK fighters advocating for Kurdish autonomy or separatism in Turkey are already a source of tension in shifting regional relations. Syrian and Turkish government officials agree that “foreign fighters” in the AANES should be expelled from the country and that its territorial integrity should be maintained at all costs, but the extent to which the SDF and PKK can be viewed as separate entities by either state is likely to remain a point of contention in ongoing negotiations. 

The most vulnerable flashpoint in current SDF/HTS negotiations is the Tishreen Dam in northern Syria, where Turkish-backed militias under the umbrella of the SNA are currently clashing with SDF forces near the border. Syrian publication Enab Baladi posits that these skirmishes may be part of a strategic attempt by Turkey to pressure the AANES from across the northern border into making concessions in negotiations with Damascus, particularly concerning the expulsion of PKK-affiliated individuals from AANES-controlled territory. Earlier this week, Syria TV also reported that an HTS military convoy has arrived on the frontline of the strategically important area, “ready to participate in fighting between the SNA and SDF” should the conflict escalate, a concrete sign that exchanges of fire between the SDF and HTS remains a real possibility. 

Even as these skirmishes have increased, however, multilateral meetings between HTS, the SDF, and international partners are ongoing in Damascus. On January 21, Qasra even asserted that negotiations on the issue of military integration were “near[ing] completion.” Whether or not this is an accurate statement remains to be seen, but it is clear that the diplomatic resolution of the AANES’ demand for limited autonomy is a critical component of avoiding power vacuums and building sustainable stability in the region. 

While it is important for the SDF to acknowledge its PKK links and negotiate in good faith with the new Syrian administration, it is also the responsibility of Ahmed al-Sharaa and HTS to acknowledge the legacy of Kurdish erasure in the country and provide the AANES meaningful guarantees of safety and security to forge a multiethnic and effective political coalition in this new chapter of Syrian history.

  • Straight from the Source provides a timely synopsis of commentary and news from Middle Eastern media outlets to shed light on breaking developments and opinions that are underrepresented in U.S. media

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