As Iran buried long-time Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and resumed attacks on Gulf shipping and US allies, Washington this week unleashed a barrage of at least 170 strikes to compel the regime to abandon the oil weapon and negotiate from a position of weakness. A new open-access article in Middle East Policy suggests that President Donald Trump has misread the Islamic Republic by assuming that it will back down in the face of superior military force. Instead, Iran’s strategy is co-constituted by the pragmatic imperatives of homeland defense and a revolutionary identity forged over nearly half a century.
The new double issue of Middle East Policy features incisive analyses of the Iran War: Gawdat Bahgat contends that there will be no likely return to the status quo antebellum in the Strait of Hormuz; Buğra Sari’s structural analysis of the Iran-Israel conflict shows that Washington must shift the incentives on both sides; and Robert Springborg and Guilain Denoeux contend that the US-Iran standoff is not amenable to Trump’s transactional style. In addition, Ariel Limanya Limbu and Ronen A. Cohen examine the extension of Iran’s forward defense into sub-Saharan Africa, and Umud Shokri shows how Gulf-Asia energy ties are being reshaped by maritime insecurity, corridor disruption, and the shift toward multipolar energy governance. The table of contents of this special double issue is below.
You can still read our special issue on the Iran War, published in March. If you find this article useful, please forward it to others you believe will benefit; register to receive our weekly updates here. And please follow us on the social media platforms X, LinkedIn, and Instagram.
In his open-access article on the co-constitution of revolutionary identity and pragmatic security doctrine in Iran, Alabbas F. Alsudani contends that scholars have erred in arguing for one or the other as the central driving force of regime behavior. During the formative period of the early Islamic Republic, as factions across the ideological spectrum competed for power, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps arose as a protector of clerical principles. However, its mission soon expanded to homeland defense in the face of the Iraqi invasion of 1980. “Through this process, ideology and strategic learning became institutionalized within the state’s military structures,” Alsudani writes, “producing a hybrid strategic culture composed of mutually reinforcing revolutionary identity and pragmatic adaptation.”
Over the decades that followed, Iran faced periodic domestic unrest that threatened its legitimacy while increasingly relying on a doctrine of forward defense to deter external adversaries. These efforts continued to merge revolutionary identity and homeland security. For instance, Hezbollah became a key ally due to its shared ideological vision, Alsudani argues, “but its operational logic aligned with Iran’s forward defense.”
This week’s renewed fighting shows that the two aspects are inseparable. Hezbollah’s rejection of the new Lebanon ceasefire—which conditions Israeli withdrawal on the militant group’s disarmament—demonstrates that Iran’s forward-defense strategy remains intertwined with the revolutionary commitment to preserving the Axis of Resistance.
This fusion also enabled the mobilization of paramilitaries in Iraq and the Houthi movement in Yemen. Analyses must take all of this together to understand Iranian behavior, Alsudani contends:
The regional order that has emerged since 1979 is therefore neither purely sectarian nor purely strategic. It is marked by hybrid actors operating within partially fragmented states, by sovereignty that is negotiated rather than absolute, and by deterrence exercised through networks rather than conventional armies. This reconfiguration is the enduring impact of the Iranian revolution.
Alsudani allows that when “Iran’s regional network is systematically degraded”—as it has been since 2024, leading to the direct wars against the regime over the last two years—“ideology and strategy contract toward the homeland as networked deterrence shifts to direct confrontation.” However, he concludes: “While the co-constitution has been placed under extreme pressure by the US-Israeli war of 2026, it has persisted in modified form and is likely to continue as a fundamental logic.”
The renewed conflict in the Gulf thus illustrates both dimensions of Alsudani’s argument. Iran’s threats against shipping and the Strait of Hormuz reflect the pragmatic requirements of homeland defense and regime survival under direct attack. At the same time, Tehran continues to view Hezbollah as integral to its revolutionary identity. Rather than replacing ideology with pragmatism, Iran’s actions show how the two remain co-constituted.
Middle East Policy, Summer 2026
Special Double Issue!
AMERICA’S WAR ON IRAN
Signals, Red Lines, and Collision: The Israel-Iran Spiral and US Intervention
Buğra Sari—open access!
Trump’s Transactional Diplomacy: Breakthrough or Breakdown?
Guilain Denoeux | Robert Springborg—open access!
Between Ideology and Strategy: The Iranian Revolution and the Reconfiguration of Middle Eastern Security
Alabbas F. Alsudani—open access!
Iran’s Forward Defense in Sub-Saharan Africa
Ariel Limanya Limbu | Ronen A. Cohen—open access!
CONSEQUENCES IN THE GULF
Crisis in the Strait of Hormuz: What Lies Ahead?
Gawdat Bahgat—free to read!
GCC-Asia Pacific Energy Nexus: Navigating Shifts in Demand and Geopolitics
Umud Shokri—open access!
Outwardly Strong, Internally Brittle: Dissecting the MBS Regime
Mohammed Ayoob—free to read!
POLITICAL CONVULSIONS OVER PALESTINE
New Political Actors in Palestine: The Digital Efficacy of Gen Z
Abdalraheem S.H. Shobaki | Mahmoud S.H. Shobaki
Between Fatigue and Fear: West Bank Student Solidarity During the Gaza War
Mert Öztürk / Oqab Jabali
Explaining Saudi Arabia’s Inaction During the Gaza War: Why No Oil Embargo?
Mazaher Koruzhde | Eric Lob—free to read!
From Palestine Ally to Zionist Partner: India-Israel Relations, 2014–2025
Yücel Bulut—open access!
REBUILDING AND RECKONING IN SYRIA
A Heuristic Equation of Transformation, Justice, and Violence in Post-Assad Syria
Zeynep Banu Dalaman—free to read!
Federalism in Post-Assad Syria: Toward Durable Peace in a Pluralist Society
Dilan Okcuoglu—open access!
REGIONAL SOCIAL & ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE
Cryptocurrency Regulation in MENA: From Prohibition to Conditional Legalization
Bassant Hassib | Fatimah Ayad
Fallen Cedar: Lebanon’s Debt Diplomacy, 2015–2020
Kevin Rosier
Plastics Pollution in the Gulf Countries: Problems and Policy Solutions
Richard Rutter et al.
Constructing Social Cohesion in Qatar: National Vision, Strategy, and Constitution
Logan Cochrane et al.
THE ATTRACTIVE POWER OF EAST ASIA
Saudi Arabia’s Deepening Engagement with Asia-Pacific Nations
Ghulam Ali
China’s Hajj-Related Infrastructure Diplomacy with Saudi Arabia
Song Niu | Danyu Wang
Chinese-Arab Scientific Cooperation and Effectiveness
Minglian Long, Yijia Luo, Yi Zhang
BOOK REVIEWS
Lynch, America’s Middle East
Reviewed by Yasir Kuoti
Denoeux, Springborg, and Alaoui, Making Aid Work
Reviewed by Naomi Sakr
Momeni, The Presidential Difference and Iran’s Foreign Policy Under Khatami from 1997 to 2005
Reviewed by Mahmood Monshipouri
Bajoghli et al., How Sanctions Work
Reviewed by Bahram P. Kalviri
Donelli, Power Competition in the Red Sea
Reviewed by Riccardo Gasco
Brownlee and Ghiabi, States Without People
Reviewed by İlhan Bilici
Karam, The Middle East in 1958
Reviewed by Elifnur Düzsöz
Uysal, Class, Capital, State, and Late Development
Reviewed by Yusuf Murteza
Greenberg, The Long War of Ideas
Reviewed by A.R. Joyce