On June 13, 2025, the Iranian leadership was profoundly shocked as Israeli attacks struck more than 100 military targets and killed more than 10 senior military commanders and nuclear scientists in one of the largest and most complex military-intelligence operations since World War II. A new article in the Fall 2025 issue of Middle East Policy draws on official reports, accounts by political, security, military, and technical experts, and interviews with confidential government sources to evaluate the effects of the June war and the next moves in the confrontation over the nuclear program.
Five of the original articles in our 165th installment are free to read, even for those of you without a subscription. The new journal includes analyses of dehumanization in Gaza; the Israeli peace movement; the Iranian Woman, Life, Freedom protests; the pan-Arab corporate elite; and the effects of trade, war, and social collapse across the region.
In his timely deep dive into the Israel-Iran war of June 2025, Ali Bagheri Dolatabadi highlights the areas where Tehran was the most vulnerable and those where it demonstrated resilience. Israel did the most significant damage to air-defense and radar systems, according to a confidential source. “Israel aimed to open Iranian skies to its fighter jets,” this person says, “and it seems to have largely achieved this goal.” In addition, Iran’s vaunted program of drones proved insufficient to threaten the Israel, as the countries are separated by too great a distance.
However, Bagheri Dolatabadi shows, Iran’s missile launches toward the Israeli homeland proved effective over time. While 2 percent penetrated defenses in the initial stages, within a week Iran had a success rate of 16 percent. “Israel did not expect this demonstration of Tehran’s capabilities and its own ineffectiveness in intercepting these missiles,” the author writes.
Still, Iran has had to scramble to prevent the ultimate goal of regime change. “Although Tehran managed to respond to Israel’s attacks and proclaimed victory,” Bagheri Dolatabadi observes, “serious concerns persist about the Islamic Republic’s future.” The regime therefore took several immediate steps in anticipation of a second direct war with its rival:
- restructuring the Supreme National Security Council and replacing its secretary general
- reshuffling deputies in the defense ministry
- purging the government of more than 700 alleged spies accused of collaborating with Israel
- passing laws to prevent the disclosure of damage to the nuclear program.
Ultimately, the author explains, the ramifications extend well beyond Iran’s borders. The regional order has been fundamentally restructured in favor of Israel and the United States, with leadership of the Muslim world up for grabs. Still, Bagheri Dolatabadi warns, the path toward peace and a resolution to the nuclear issue must turn away from military options. “Iranians will not tolerate such external interventions and will rise in defense of their government if Israeli attacks persist,” he writes. “Many have come to understand that Tel Aviv’s war on Iran is not merely aimed at regime change but threatens to obliterate their millennia-old civilization.”
Still, given Iran’s success in penetrating Israel’s defenses, the missile issue could become more of a sticking point than the nuclear program.
Dehumanization of Disregard: The Case of Gaza
Yagil Levy—open access!
THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC’S HOMELAND CONFLICTS
The June 2025 Israeli War: Iran’s Assessment and Regional Consequences
Ali Bagheri Dolatabadi—free to read!
The Perils of Nuclear Talks after the US-Israel War on Iran
Banafsheh Keynoush—open access!
The 2022 Iran Protests: The View from the Streets
Rauf Rahimi | Sajjad Rezaei
EFFECTS OF REGIONAL TRADE AND ECONOMICS
Arab-Israeli Gas Diplomacy: Interdependence and a Path Toward Peace?
Gawdat Bahgat
The Development and Political Effects of a Pan-Arab Corporate Elite
Hannes Baumann | Alice Hooper—open access!
The Corridor War in the Middle East
Arash Reisinezhad | Arsham Reisinezhad
FALLOUT FROM SYRIAN AND LEBANESE CRISES
After Assad: How Russia Is Losing the Middle East
Namig Abbasov | Emil A. Souleimanov—open access!
Forgotten Fighters in Their Own Words: Pan-Arab Volunteers in Syria-Iraq
Djallil Lounnas | Israa Mezzyane
The Factors Driving Lebanon’s Medical Brain Drain
Mohamad Zreik | Houssein Mallah | Mohamad Mokdad
BOOK REVIEWS
Javad Heiran-Nia, Iran and the Security Order in the Persian Gulf
Reviewed by Mahmood Monshipouri
Rob Geist Pinfold, Understanding Territorial Withdrawal: Israeli Occupations and Exits
Reviewed by Nathaniel Shils
Steffen Hertog, Locked Out of Development: Insiders and Outsiders in Arab Capitalism
Reviewed by Ahalla Tsauro
Gilbert Achcar, Gaza Catastrophe: The Genocide in World-Historical Perspective; and Erik Skare, Road to October 7: A Brief History of Palestinian Islamism
Reviewed by A.R. Joyce