Iran-Russia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement

  • A tailored resource to better understand rapidly evolving geopolitical events

President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran and President Vladimir Putin of Russia inked the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement in Moscow earlier this month. The agreement comes as Iran looks for new security partners following the degradation of its proxy network and Russia looks for new pathways to influence the Middle East after the fall of the Moscow-backed Assad regime in Syria. Here’s what you need to know:

A time of need

  • The deal has been in the works for years, but mounting geopolitical pressures on both states reinvigorated the need to finalize the deal quickly.
  • Russia finds itself with few friends and an overheated economy following its invasion of Ukraine, and both Moscow and Tehran lost a key ally with the ouster of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
  • Iran is also looking at a more hostile neighborhood compared to just a few months ago. With Assad gone, Hamas decimated, and Hezbollah weakened, Iran’s “axis of resistance” is under grave threat.

What is included?

  • Russia and Iran agreed to closely coordinate their local and global strategies and cooperate further on defense, intelligence, and counterterrorism, as well as trade, energy, finance, and other economic areas.
  • The agreement repeatedly references promoting a multipolar world order, as both states seek to oppose U.S. hegemony and resist Western interests in the Middle East.
  • The treaty will go into effect in mid-February and will remain in place for twenty years.

Economic effects

  • If Iran’s economy is to survive a new round of American pressure, collaboration with Russia to export its oil outside the regulated market will be paramount. 
  • Russia’s economy also stands to gain from the agreement, which reaffirms the North-South Transport Corridor, a land route through Iran that bypasses the Suez Canal and satisfies Russia’s quest for warm-water port access.

Limitations of the agreement

  • According to former CIA intelligence officer Paul Kolbe, the deal is largely “form over substance,” despite the wide range of topics it addresses.
  • Notably, the agreement did not include a mutual defense clause, though this may have been foreshadowed by the unwillingness of either state to intervene to save the Assad regime in Syria. 
  • Additionally, other points of conflict could emerge if Russia reconciles with the new Syrian regime or Iran makes a dash for a nuclear bomb, destabilizing the region against Moscow’s interests.

Projecting power

  • Russia also wants to project strength in the Middle East and maintain its status as a player in the region—a true global superpower and not, as former U.S. President Obama described them, a mere “regional power.”
  • The timing of the agreement is also no coincidence, as Russia and Iran hope to stem the bleeding from the collapse of the Assad regime.

 

 

(Banner image: AP)

  • A tailored resource to better understand rapidly evolving geopolitical events

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