A new article explores the shifting relationship between China and Gulf states and Israel and highlights Washington’s growing concern with Sino-Gulf cooperation.
The recent wave of attacks by Houthi rebels on ships in the Red Sea has sparked responses from more than the US-UK coalition; China quickly called for an end to the “harassment of civilian vessels” even while its own economic interests remain largely protected; Houthi leadership has stated that Chinese and Russian vessels would have safe passage in the Red Sea.
The promise from the armed group highlights a growing trend in the region that welcomes increasing Chinese engagement. It also helps reveal how significant Beijing’s commercial stakes in the Middle East are as the government continues to express concern that the Israel-Hamas war will put the region’s economies at risk—as well as its own.
Days after their initial statements, it was revealed that China has been attempting to flex its recently acquired diplomatic muscle to contain the attacks. As Iran’s primary trading partner, Beijing has asked the state to help stop attacks by the Tehran-backed Houthis. One Iranian official revealed that “China says: ‘If our interests are harmed in any way, it will impact our business with Tehran. So tell the Houthis to show restraint.’” US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has continued to press Beijing to use its influence to ease the region’s rising tensions.
China’s deepening relationship with Iran is only one of its areas of cooperation in the Middle East. These complex economic and political connections are highlighted in a Middle East Policy article that shows how states are adapting to “the fast-changing regional dynamics.”
Focusing on the cases of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Iran, the Gedaliah Afterman and Dominika Urhová demonstrate the growing importance of China in the region, particularly in its capacity to offer greater choice to states in the region. The authors assert that “these states face significant challenges as they try to exploit the economic opportunities offered by China while preserving their longstanding relationships with the United States” but “are increasingly prioritizing and pursuing their national interests, leading to policy decisions that at times run contrary to the US agenda.”
China remains one of the largest trading partners and investors in the region. In recent years, billions of dollars of Chinese investment have flooded growing Middle Eastern economies as the superpower requires more oil and expands its Belt and Road Initiative and Digital Silk Road programs.
One of the most enthusiastic partners has been the UAE, who has welcomed the investment as an opportunity for economic and political diversification. Others have proved more hesitant, including Saudi Arabia and Israel; both states recognize the capacity of China to grow their economies, but fear a breakdown in relations with their most significant security provider, the US. China has so far not attempted to push this issue; in fact, it appears to welcome the American security presence as a reduced cost to its own efforts.
Iran is among the most complicated cases. China is by far the most critical trade partner for Tehran as it has combated Western sanctions; in 2021, the two countries signed a 25-year strategic agreement that highlighted this relationship. However, the agreement is being tested as development has been slowed by the lack of agreement on the critical nuclear issue. Iran offers an important rhetorical benefit though: “Iran and China jointly advance a narrative heavily criticizing US and Western foreign policies. This alignment of their public perspectives has been evident throughout the partnership.”
The growing influence of a competing superpower has forced the US to re-engage in a region it had been perceived as pulling back from. While it is still becoming clear what level of influence China wields in the region, its growing presence has proved a complicated situation for states as they carefully balance ties with both Beijing and Washington. Afterman and Urhová highlight that “it appears that as superpower competition intensifies, a new trend is emerging: The Biden administration increases pressure on China in Asia, and China responds in the Middle East.”
Among the major takeaways readers can find in Gedaliah Afterman and Dominika Urhová’s Middle East Policy article, “Between the Superpowers: Gulf States and Israel Navigate the New Mideast Dynamics”:
- China’s growing engagement with Middle Eastern powers has increased its economic, political, and military influence.
- Beijing’s renewed efforts appear to be a response to the perceived withdrawal of the US from the region.
- “Gulf countries and Israel are increasingly prioritizing and pursuing their national interests, leading to policy decisions that at times run contrary to the US agenda.”
- A majority of Middle Eastern countries have signed onto China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Digital Silk Road projects.
- China appears to be primarily interested in promoting technological connectivity and development, a key interest of the regional powers like the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
- China is one of the largest trading partners of countries in the region and has begun establishing its diplomatic power as a mediator as well.
- The UAE has welcomed Chinese engagement with a mutual focus on technological development, infrastructure, and alternative energy, as well as a more assertive foreign policy.
- Abu Dhabi appears to be seeking diversification in its partnerships to mitigate its reliance on the US.
- Saudi Arabia has also signed multiple agreements with China because of the rising concern that the US is no longer a reliable partner.
- This relationship is focused more on maintaining regional stability and China does not appear to want to push out the critical US security presence.
- Saudi Arabia also has welcomed diplomatic ties; contrary to the US, neither country seeks to discuss their internal affairs, including human rights violations.
- China has established itself as a major trading and investment partner for Israel as well, who has faced significant pushback from the US as their primary supporter.
- Beijing appears hesitant to become significantly involved because of Israel’s close ties with Washington.
- China has also proven to be a shaky international ally, as it has not hesitated to be critical of Israel when it serves its interests.
- US sanctions on Iran have pushed Tehran to lean into its relationship with China, who is willing to maintain and even expand economic relations despite Western sanctions.
- However, the relationship has grown tense and Chinese investment has largely paused until a new nuclear agreement is made.
- Both countries benefit from their mutual criticisms of US and Western policy.
- The strategies of regional partners are shaped by three interrelated trends:
- The perception that the US is withdrawing has allowed China to enter the economic and diplomatic space.
- Beijing is promoting a policy that is increasingly focusing on the Middle East’s capacity to fulfill its goals in infrastructure and technological development.
- The changing regional landscape that is promoting the UAE and Saudi Arabia has pushed them to seek less reliance on a single foreign partner.
You can read “Between the Superpowers: Gulf States and Israel Navigate the New Mideast Dynamics” by Gedaliah Afterman and Dominika Urhová in the Spring 2024 issue of Middle East Policy.
(Banner image: HH Sheikh Mohammed)