Middle East Policy kicks off an early view of its upcoming journal with Rob Geist Pinfold’s “Myth Busting in a Post-Assad Syria,” free to read, even without a subscription. Pinfold, a lecturer in international security at King’s College London, argues that we must cut through faulty assumptions to understand the dynamics that allowed Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to oust Bashar al-Assad, despite the Syrian dictator’s support from Russia and Iran.
One myth that is most important for analysts and policymakers to reconsider: that the West has no good options. Pinfold argues for “cautious and pragmatic engagement with the plethora of actors on the ground today.” The many rebel factions may not be as powerful as HTS, but Pinfold contends that the new government in Damascus must balance its preferences for local autonomy and its need to unify the state. This is difficult but not impossible. The article shows that HTS and its leader, Ahmed al-Shara, did not win simply due to military prowess but through political acumen. “In a war-torn country where political power comes through the barrel of a gun,” Pinfold writes, “this is particularly impressive.”
From there, the article complicates other key misconceptions: that HTS is fundamentally “the good guys” (or “the bad guys”); that there is no future for either Russia or Iran in Syria; and that Israel is interested in a full-scale occupation. The author concludes with counsel for the new team in Washington: “The Trump administration will do well to acknowledge that the US role in Syria today and in the future is unavoidable and essential to its own interests.”
The open-access “Myth Busting in a Post-Assad Syria” anchors the Spring 2025 issue of Middle East Policy, available in an early view. Yitzhak Shichor’s deep dive into the China-Israel relationship is also free to read. The journal’s 163rd installment further examines Saudi Arabia’s potential security deal with the United States, including Israel’s reaction to a proposed Saudi nuclear capability, the China factor that motivates Washington’s pursuit of an accord, and whether the region could become a WMD-free zone. Rounding out the lineup, we examine peace building in postwar Yemen, demographic change and social cohesion in Iraq after the war against ISIS (open access), and Pakistan’s security challenges since the Taliban’s takeover in Afghanistan.
Readers can find the Winter 2024 issue through this link, featuring M.T. Samuel’s analysis of the Gaza war and Palestinian dispossession, which is still free to read, even without a subscription. The journal’s special releases on the post-October 7 conflicts, Israel’s Wars and The Gaza War, remain vital sources, featuring analyses of the regional repercussions of the conflict in Gaza and the consequences of escalation with Iran, the long historical road to the 2023 attacks, and the misconceptions that failed to stop them.
Middle East Policy, Spring 2025, Early View
SYRIA, GAZA, AND STIRRINGS OF A NEW ORDER
Myth Busting in a Post-Assad Syria
Rob Geist Pinfold
Turkey’s Long Game in Syria: Moving beyond Ascendance
Şaban Kardaş, forthcoming
Saudi Arabia and Iran: Spoilers or Enablers of Conflict?
Banafsheh Keynoush, forthcoming
Out of Proportion: Israel’s Paradox in China’s Middle Eastern Policy
Yitzhak Shichor
THE US-SAUDI PACT AND NUCLEAR SECURITY
How to Address the Saudi Nuclear Program? An Israeli Dilemma
Niv Farago
The China Factor in US-Saudi Talks for a Defense Pact
Ghulam Ali, Peng Nian
Negotiating the Impossible? A WMD-Free Zone in the Middle East
Robert Mason
CIVIL WARS AND THEIR AFTERSHOCKS
Local Participatory Development Models for Postwar Reconstruction in Yemen
Asher Orkaby, Afrah Al-Ahmadi
Demographic Change and Social Cohesion in Post-Islamic State Iraq
Omran Omer Ali, Nazar Ameen Mohammed, Aurélie Broeckerhoff
The Taliban-TTP Nexus and Pakistan’s Rising Security Challenges
Shahid Ali, Raj Verma
BOOK REVIEWS
Florian Weigand, Waiting for Dignity: Legitimacy and Authority in Afghanistan
Reviewed by Sajjad Ahmed
Karel Černý, Instability in the Middle East: Structural Changes and Uneven Modernisation 1950–2015
Reviewed by Alper Çakır
Biden’s Gaza Failure, the Syrian Revolution, and the Folly of US Middle East Policy
Review essay by A.R. Joyce