As Pakistan faces condemnation, and possibly reprisals, following deadly attacks in Kashmir, it is also vulnerable to threats from the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a militant group seeking to create an Islamic political order. An analysis by Shahid Ali and Raj Verma, available for free in Middle East Policy, demonstrates the Afghan Taliban’s complicity in what “could undermine Pakistan’s territorial integrity.”
“The Taliban’s determination to provide the TTP with shelter and support—such as operational freedom and mobility, arms and ammunition, recruitment and military training, and financial and logistical assistance—has been the key factor behind the TTP’s resurgence and increased violence against the Pakistani state,” the authors write in the journal’s Spring 2025 issue.
Ali and Verma illuminate the roots of the TTP and show how the Taliban, once they returned to power in 2021, refused to help Pakistan eliminate the group’s safe havens. This has allowed the TTP to make inroads into Pashtun areas of Pakistan and try to drive a wedge between those territories and the central government in Islamabad.
Perhaps more important to the TTP’s gains, the authors show, is the group’s shift from advocating global jihad, in the style of al-Qaeda, and instead focusing on local politics. “It has declared the state as the enemy, intensified its attacks against security forces and law-enforcement agencies, and vowed not to target civilians,” Ali and Verma assert.
However, the article warns, the group’s gains within Pakistan could allow it to threaten security elsewhere. “If the group makes territorial gains in Pakistan, this could allow al-Qaeda and other internationally focused militants to find sanctuaries in those areas,” Ali and Verma conclude. “This could threaten American interests in South Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, and beyond.”
All content in the Spring 2025 Middle East Policy is free to read through the beginning of May.
The new issue features 10 original articles and three book reviews, anchored by coverage of post-Assad Syria, taking down myths that have erupted since the rebel victory and analyzing Turkey’s ascendance in the wake of the shocking ouster. Given the murky prospects for ending the Gaza campaign, the issue then explores Iran’s and Saudi Arabia’s confusing approaches to the war and whether China has fundamentally shifted its relationship with Israel.
The journal next takes a deep dive into Saudi Arabia’s potential security deal with the United States, including Israel’s reaction to Riyadh’s proposed nuclear capability, the China factor that motivates Washington’s pursuit of an accord, and whether the region could become a WMD-free zone. And we analyze peace building in postwar Yemen, demographic change and social cohesion in Iraq after the war against ISIS, and Pakistan’s security challenges since the Taliban’s takeover in Afghanistan.
Readers can find the Winter 2024 issue through this link, featuring M.T. Samuel’s analysis of the Gaza war and Palestinian dispossession. The journal’s special releases on the post-October 7 conflicts, Israel’s Wars and The Gaza War, remain vital sources.
Middle East Policy, Spring 2025—all articles free through May 1!
SYRIA, GAZA, AND STIRRINGS OF A NEW ORDER
Myth Busting in a Post-Assad Syria
Rob Geist Pinfold
Turkey’s Long Game in Syria: Moving beyond Ascendance
Şaban Kardaş
Saudi Arabia and Iran: Spoilers or Enablers of Conflict?
Banafsheh Keynoush
Out of Proportion: Israel’s Paradox in China’s Middle Eastern Policy
Yitzhak Shichor
THE US-SAUDI PACT AND NUCLEAR SECURITY
How to Address the Saudi Nuclear Program? An Israeli Dilemma
Niv Farago
The China Factor in US-Saudi Talks for a Defense Pact
Ghulam Ali, Peng Nian
Negotiating the Impossible? A WMD-Free Zone in the Middle East
Robert Mason
CIVIL WARS AND THEIR AFTERSHOCKS
Local Participatory Development Models for Postwar Reconstruction in Yemen
Asher Orkaby, Afrah Al-Ahmadi
Demographic Change and Social Cohesion in Post-Islamic State Iraq
Omran Omer Ali, Nazar Ameen Mohammed, Aurélie Broeckerhoff
The Taliban-TTP Nexus and Pakistan’s Rising Security Challenges
Shahid Ali, Raj Verma
BOOK REVIEWS
Florian Weigand, Waiting for Dignity: Legitimacy and Authority in Afghanistan
Reviewed by Sajjad Ahmed
Karel Černý, Instability in the Middle East: Structural Changes and Uneven Modernisation 1950–2015
Reviewed by Alper Çakır
Biden’s Gaza Failure, the Syrian Revolution, and the Folly of US Middle East Policy
Review essay by A.R. Joyce