Consequences of the Iran Ceasefire Deal

  • Middle East Policy

    Middle East Policy has been one of the world’s most cited publications on the region since its inception in 1982, and our Breaking Analysis series makes high-quality, diverse analysis available to a broader audience.

White House leaders are lashing out at Israel and former President Barack Obama as the Trump administration curbs sanctions on Iran in the hopes of negotiating a nuclear deal over the next two months that will justify the 111-day war. As we await concrete indications of what is entailed in the ceasefire memo, Middle East Policy announces a special double summer issue featuring original articles on the Iran War and its aftermath, Israel’s relationships with Washington and New Delhi, and politics in the occupied territories.

The table of contents of this special double issue is below. You can still read our special issue on the Iran War and our Spring 2026 compilation. If you find this article useful, please forward it to others you believe will benefit; register to receive our weekly updates here. And please follow us on the social media platforms X, LinkedIn, and Instagram.

The new Middle East Policy analyzes the consequences of Iran’s forcing President Donald Trump into a ceasefire agreement with no guarantee that any of his original goals will be met. As traffic moves through the Strait of Hormuz—a concession from Iran that would not have been necessary if the United States had not launched the war—Gawdat Bahgat contends that there will be no likely return to the status quo antebellum. He anticipates that fees will be imposed on the vital shipping route, and in the longer term we will see moves to reduce reliance on both the strait and fossil fuels.

The war and the ceasefire deal are also exposing fault lines in Trump’s relationship with Israel and demonstrating weaknesses in his transactional diplomacy. Buğra Sari’s structural analysis of the post-October 7 conflicts between Iran and Israel shows that, to obviate the potential for forever wars, Washington must exert pressure on Israel so the incentives point toward de-escalation. And Robert Springborg and Guilain Denoeux contend that the US-Iran standoff is not amenable to Trump’s style, as in the lead-up to the war, the president never intended to make the concessions necessary for a nuclear deal. The next 60 days will indicate whether he can change his approach.

The new summer issue also takes a deep dive into how the Islamic Revolution of 1979 reconfigured security arrangements across the region, as well as how Iran broadened its forward defenses into sub-Saharan Africa.

The Iran War’s reverberations are not limited to the three combatants, as the analyses in Middle East Policy demonstrate. The key energy producers of the Gulf have an opportunity to expand their cooperation with the Asia Pacific across an array of trade sectors, continuing a trend toward multipolarity. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, argues Mohammed Ayoob, must now contend with an emboldened Iran, a fraying relationship with the United Arab Emirates, and a relatively weaker United States. However, it will be difficult to loosen the ties with Washington, Mazaher Koruzhde and Eric Lob show. Their comparison of the kingdom’s inaction during the Gaza war with its 1973 oil embargo indicates that Riyadh’s subsequent integration into the US-led global economic order has prevented it from acting against American interests.

The first half of the new summer issue concludes with a look at shifts in political dynamics laid bare during Israel’s response to the October 7 attacks. Yücel Bulut traces India’s deepening ties with Israel despite the carnage in Gaza, largely driven by ideological commonalities between the right wings of the two states. Indeed, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has alienated much of world opinion, India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, increasingly sought to shield Israel from opprobrium at the United Nations and aimed to expand the economic and political partnership. And two studies from Palestine show deepening political engagement among young people, who have had to overcome repression from Israel and the Palestinian Authority as they seek to overcome hopelessness and make their voices heard on the Gaza war.

 

Middle East Policy, Summer 2026
Special Double Issue!

AMERICA’S WAR ON IRAN
Signals, Red Lines, and Collision: The Israel-Iran Spiral and US Intervention
Buğra Sari—open access!

Trump’s Transactional Diplomacy: Breakthrough or Breakdown?
Guilain Denoeux | Robert Springborg—open access!

Between Ideology and Strategy: The Iranian Revolution and the Reconfiguration of Middle Eastern Security
Alabbas F. Alsudani—open access!

Iran’s Forward Defense in Sub-Saharan Africa
Ariel Limanya Limbu | Ronen A. Cohen—open access!

CONSEQUENCES IN THE GULF
Crisis in the Strait of Hormuz: What Lies Ahead?
Gawdat Bahgat—free to read!

GCC-Asia Pacific Energy Nexus: Navigating Shifts in Demand and Geopolitics
Umud Shokri—open access!

Outwardly Strong, Internally Brittle: Dissecting the MBS Regime
Mohammed Ayoob—free to read!

POLITICAL CONVULSIONS OVER PALESTINE
New Political Actors in Palestine: The Digital Efficacy of Gen Z
Abdalraheem S.H. Shobaki | Mahmoud S.H. Shobaki

Between Fatigue and Fear: West Bank Student Solidarity During the Gaza War
Mert Öztürk / Oqab Jabali

Explaining Saudi Arabia’s Inaction During the Gaza War: Why No Oil Embargo?
Mazaher Koruzhde | Eric Lob—free to read!

From Palestine Ally to Zionist Partner: India-Israel Relations, 2014–2025
Yücel Bulut—open access!

REBUILDING AND RECKONING IN SYRIA
A Heuristic Equation of Transformation, Justice, and Violence in Post-Assad Syria
Zeynep Banu Dalaman—free to read!

Federalism in Post-Assad Syria: Toward Durable Peace in a Pluralist Society
Dilan Okcuoglu

REGIONAL SOCIAL & ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE
Cryptocurrency Regulation in MENA: From Prohibition to Conditional Legalization
Bassant Hassib | Fatimah Ayad

Fallen Cedar: Lebanon’s Debt Diplomacy, 2015–2020
Kevin Rosier

Plastics Pollution in the Gulf Countries: Problems and Policy Solutions
Richard Rutter et al.

Constructing Social Cohesion in Qatar: National Vision, Strategy, and Constitution
Logan Cochrane et al.

THE ATTRACTIVE POWER OF EAST ASIA
Saudi Arabia’s Deepening Engagement with Asia-Pacific Nations
Ghulam Ali

China’s Hajj-Related Infrastructure Diplomacy with Saudi Arabia
Song Niu | Danyu Wang

Chinese-Arab Scientific Cooperation and Effectiveness
Minglian Long,  Yijia Luo,  Yi Zhang

BOOK REVIEWS
Lynch, America’s Middle East
Reviewed by Yasir Kuoti

Denoeux, Springborg, and Alaoui, Making Aid Work
Reviewed by Naomi Sakr

Momeni, The Presidential Difference and Iran’s Foreign Policy Under Khatami from 1997 to 2005
Reviewed by Mahmood Monshipouri

Bajoghli et al., How Sanctions Work
Reviewed by Bahram P. Kalviri

Donelli, Power Competition in the Red Sea
Reviewed by Riccardo Gasco

Brownlee and Ghiabi, States Without People
Reviewed by  İlhan Bilici

Karam, The Middle East in 1958
Reviewed by Elifnur Düzsöz

Uysal, Class, Capital, State, and Late Development
Reviewed by Yusuf Murteza

Greenberg, The Long War of Ideas
Reviewed by A.R. Joyce

  • Middle East Policy

    Middle East Policy has been one of the world’s most cited publications on the region since its inception in 1982, and our Breaking Analysis series makes high-quality, diverse analysis available to a broader audience.

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