Israel and its allies in the US Senate are lashing out at reports that the Trump administration is close to a deal that would support Saudi Arabia’s domestic nuclear program—without conditioning this on the kingdom’s normalization with Israel. An analysis in Middle East Policy, free for all readers, highlights a key factor in the American calculations: China.
The article by Ghulam Ali and Peng Nian is just one in a series of pieces in the journal’s spring issue exploring weapons of mass destruction in the region. This includes Niv Farago’s argument that Israeli officials should embrace US-Saudi cooperation on nuclear enrichment or face greater uncertainty if Beijing or Moscow makes such deals.
Ali and Nian contend that although Washington, especially the Biden administration, has been interested in forging relations between Saudi Arabi and Israel, it is more desperate to peel Riyadh away from Chinese influence. The authors inventory how this has grown steadily over the past five years, especially in the defense and technology sectors. China has conducted military exercises with the Saudis, “reportedly assisted Saudi Arabia in the domestic production of ballistic missiles and drones,” and helped to install “5G networks, smart city applications, and large data centers, in the kingdom.”
“China’s emergence as a technological powerhouse, particularly through its Digital Silk Road, aligned with Riyadh’s aspirations to become a global innovation leader,” Ali and Nian assert.
Adding to Washington’s alarm, the Chinese-Saudi relationship has been moving toward deals on a domestic nuclear program in the kingdom. “China said it could assist in constructing the kingdom’s first nuclear power plant,” the authors write, a high priority for Crown Prince Mohammed. The Saudi Vision 2030 emphasizes diversification of the economy and moving away from reliance on exports of fossil fuels.
While Israeli leaders and American supporters like Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina are expressing outrage over the Trump administration’s dropping demands for Saudi Arabia to recognize the Jewish state, such thawing of relations appears unlikely. Riyadh has stressed that “Saudi Arabia will continue its relentless efforts to establish an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, and will not establish diplomatic relations with Israel without that.” While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he believes peace with the kingdom is “going to happen,” he has also challenged the Saudis to take in the entire Palestinian population and create a state on their territory. “They have a lot of land over there,” the prime minister quipped.
The Trump administration may be bowing to reality and trying to prevent further Chinese gains in the Saudi nuclear sector.
All articles in the Spring 2025 Middle East Policy are still free to read, even for those without a subscription.
The new issue features 10 original articles and three book reviews, anchored by coverage of post-Assad Syria, taking down myths that have erupted since the rebel victory and analyzing Turkey’s ascendance in the wake of the shocking ouster. Given the murky prospects for ending the Gaza campaign, the issue then explores Iran’s and Saudi Arabia’s confusing approaches to the war and whether China has fundamentally shifted its relationship with Israel.
The journal next takes a deep dive into Saudi Arabia’s potential security deal with the United States, including Israel’s reaction to Riyadh’s proposed nuclear capability, the China factor that motivates Washington’s pursuit of an accord, and whether the region could become a WMD-free zone. And we analyze peace building in postwar Yemen, demographic change and social cohesion in Iraq after the war against ISIS, and Pakistan’s security challenges since the Taliban’s takeover in Afghanistan.
Readers can find the Winter 2024 issue through this link, featuring M.T. Samuel’s analysis of the Gaza war and Palestinian dispossession. The journal’s special releases on the post-October 7 conflicts, Israel’s Wars and The Gaza War, remain vital sources.
Middle East Policy, Spring 2025—all articles free through May 1!
SYRIA, GAZA, AND STIRRINGS OF A NEW ORDER
Myth Busting in a Post-Assad Syria
Rob Geist Pinfold
Turkey’s Long Game in Syria: Moving beyond Ascendance
Şaban Kardaş
Saudi Arabia and Iran: Spoilers or Enablers of Conflict?
Banafsheh Keynoush
Out of Proportion: Israel’s Paradox in China’s Middle Eastern Policy
Yitzhak Shichor
THE US-SAUDI PACT AND NUCLEAR SECURITY
How to Address the Saudi Nuclear Program? An Israeli Dilemma
Niv Farago
The China Factor in US-Saudi Talks for a Defense Pact
Ghulam Ali, Peng Nian
Negotiating the Impossible? A WMD-Free Zone in the Middle East
Robert Mason
CIVIL WARS AND THEIR AFTERSHOCKS
Local Participatory Development Models for Postwar Reconstruction in Yemen
Asher Orkaby, Afrah Al-Ahmadi
Demographic Change and Social Cohesion in Post-Islamic State Iraq
Omran Omer Ali, Nazar Ameen Mohammed, Aurélie Broeckerhoff
The Taliban-TTP Nexus and Pakistan’s Rising Security Challenges
Shahid Ali, Raj Verma
BOOK REVIEWS
Florian Weigand, Waiting for Dignity: Legitimacy and Authority in Afghanistan
Reviewed by Sajjad Ahmed
Karel Černý, Instability in the Middle East: Structural Changes and Uneven Modernisation 1950–2015
Reviewed by Alper Çakır
Biden’s Gaza Failure, the Syrian Revolution, and the Folly of US Middle East Policy
Review essay by A.R. Joyce