An article in Middle East Policy’s Fall 2024 issue analyzes the impact of the Gaza war on regional dynamics, contrasting them with the pre-Arab Spring status quo.
On October 7, 2023, Hamas carried out the deadliest attack in Israel’s history. Israel’s response, a massive offensive into Gaza, has now lasted over a year, killed and injured tens of thousands of civilians, inflamed tensions with other states, and fundamentally shaken up the post-2011 status quo in the Middle East.
Relations between states have shifted: Saudi Arabia and Iran have cooled tensions, Iran and Israel have exchanged missile salvos, and regional powers have stepped back from their criticisms of Israel to facilitate new cooperation. Nonstate actors have gained greater prominence in the world stage: most notably Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, but also the rebel groups in Syria that toppled the weakened Assad regime. And fundamentally, argues a new article in Middle East Policy, the issue of Palestine “is again at the center of Arab and Middle Eastern politics.”
These factors are some of those investigated by Morten Valbjørn, André Bank, and May Darwich in “Forward to the Past? Regional Repercussions of the Gaza War” in the journal’s Fall 2024 issue. They argue that the dynamics that developed in the years following 2011 have been radically upended. While some of the previous alliances have returned, such as the Axis of Resistance, a variety of novel relationships and movements, including an international pro-Palestine movement, have begun to form.
For much of the second half of the 20th century, Palestine was positioned “at the center of regional politics, and it figured prominently in how Arab regimes interacted with Israel.” Around the turn of the century, Arab states tied normalization agreements with Israel to the development of a Palestinian state, and the 2000s witnessed the rise of nonstate actors as real players in the conflict, including Hamas and Hezbollah.
Following the 2011 uprisings, the cause began to lose momentum as new conflicts fractured the region. Popular mobilizations and wars were turning points that led to a rise in sectarianism, proxy fights, and regional competition that began to take priority over Palestine in the media and political debates.
Though the issue was largely sidelined in policymaking, it remained a priority amongst the general public, at least in sentiment if not mobilization. Many Arabs saw the issue as a major concern and opposed the recognition of Israel by their governments. In response, states have attempted to appease their populations, such as by allowing protests, but have stopped short of acting against Israel. The scholars contend that this is revealing “an increasing regimes-people divide” in the region. And with extreme violence shared daily in the news and on social media, the issue of Palestine has become a rallying cry against imperialism and injustice. It has also shifted form, “transforming from a cause that unites Arabs into a transnational rallying cry against settler colonialism.”
The war, the authors assert, also “accentuated the Axis of Resistance,” the alliance between Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas, and the moderate, West-leaning Arab camp, including Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. But in recent months, the Axis has taken devastating blows with the assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. Once a prominent force in the region, the outlook of the alliance is in great doubt.
The “long post-2011 decade in the Middle East is over,” Valbjørn, Bank, and Darwich declare. The Gaza war has changed the dynamics in the Middle East, with Palestine once again at the forefront, new internal divides in states across the region, and “a new period of ‘multiplexity,’ with no hegemons and more diverse material and ideological configurations.” And the effects of the war, much like the Arab Spring, will still be felt for years to come.
Among the major takeaways readers can find in Valbjørn, Bank, and Darwich’s Middle East Policy article, “Forward to the Past? Regional Repercussions of the Gaza War”:
- Palestine was at the center of regional politics in the Middle East for a majority of the 20th century. But following the 2011 Arab uprisings, the cause began to lose momentum.
- The popular mobilizations and wars during the Arab Spring were a turning point for the region. The rise of sectarianism, proxy wars, and regional competition began to overshadow Palestine in the media and political debates.
- By the 2020s, fervor for the Palestinian cause and animosity towards Israel seemed to both have disappeared, evidenced partly by the Abraham Accords.
- At the same time, while the issue was ignored in policy, it remained a high priority amongst the public. A vast majority of Arabs saw the issue as a major concern and opposed the recognition of Israel, signaling a growing divide between regimes and their peoples.
- The Hamas attack on October 7 began the war in Gaza, collapsed the status quo, and brought an end to the post-2011 era.
- Hamas allied itself with the Axis of Resistance, which it had abandoned during the Syrian civil war, undermining the Sunni-Shia divide that was popularized in the 2010s.
- The rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran no longer dominates policy in the region, and both are advocating for a ceasefire and regional stability.
- The war led to a return of many pre-2011 dynamics, but it has also led to some unprecedented developments.
- The mobilization in support of Palestine in the Arab world strongly resembles the pre-Arab Spring period, but has also transformed into a worldwide phenomenon.
- Palestine has become a rallying cry against settler colonialism, imperialism, and Western hegemony. This was highlighted by South Africa’s case against Israel in the International Criminal Court.
- Despite the growing pro-Palestine sentiment in the region, regimes have not acted against Israel. Instead, a pattern of appeasement has emerged as politicians have verbally criticized Israel but continued working toward normalization deals.
- The regional dynamics that developed post-2011 have been upended. While some of the previous alliances have returned, such as the Axis of Resistance, a variety of novel relationships, including an international pro-Palestine movement against settler colonialism, have formed.
You can read “Forward to the Past? Regional Repercussions of the Gaza War” by Morten Valbjørn, André Bank, and May Darwich in the Fall 2024 issue of Middle East Policy.
(Banner image: Palestinian News & Information Agency)
