Executive Summary
Following the collapse of the regime of President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, Syria entered a new phase marked by political transition but persistent humanitarian, economic, and governance challenges. As of 2026, an estimated 15.6 million people in Syria require humanitarian assistance, including more than 5.5 million internally displaced persons. Reconstruction needs were estimated at $216 billion. Although approximately 2.9 million Syrians returned to their communities in 2025, these returns have further strained already fragile infrastructure and essential public services. At the same time, reductions in U.S. foreign assistance have constrained humanitarian and stabilization efforts, underscoring the need for a more sustainable approach.
To guide Syria’s transition toward U.S. interests, Washington’s engagement in Syria must shift away from aid-centric models toward targeted, partnership-based, and conflict-sensitive approaches that center local ownership. Rather than relying on large-scale financial assistance, the United States can leverage diplomatic engagement, technical support, and direct partnerships with local actors to support inclusive peacebuilding.
Three core recommendations will help the U.S. achieve this outcome: prioritize partnerships with historically underrepresented local actors; support grassroots initiatives that expand participation in peacebuilding; and address the structural sources of exclusion and fragmentation — including property rights, transitional justice, and inclusive governance. By adopting this approach, the United States can sustain meaningful influence in Syria’s transition, even in a resource-constrained environment.
The content and views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and should not be taken to reflect an official policy or position of the Middle East Policy Council.
Photo | Syrians celebrate on Jan. 20, 2025, after government forces retook Raqqa, Syria, from the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. (Ahmad Hasaballah/Getty Images)
