President Donald Trump has thrown into doubt a landmark nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia, demanding on social media that Riyadh normalize relations with Israel and forswear uranium enrichment on its soil in return for American assistance in developing a civilian atomic program. New articles in Middle East Policy explore the geopolitical consequences of such a deal, including the implications for Saudi-US relations, Israeli hegemony, and a potential regional arms race.
Middle East Policy has just published its Summer 2026 double issue, featuring incisive open-access examinations of the Iran War, its causes, and its implications, including what lies ahead in the Strait of Hormuz; how Trump’s transactionalism is backfiring; how the Islamic Revolution upended regional security; Iran’s forward defense in Africa; and the effects of the war on Gulf cooperation with the Asia-Pacific. The table of contents of this special double issue is below. If you find this article useful, please forward it to others you believe will benefit. You can register to receive our weekly updates here. And please follow us on the social media platforms X and LinkedIn.
Many details of the originally announced nuclear pact between Washington and Riyadh are surprising, including the fact that it would not require Saudi-Israeli normalization. However, an article in the new summer issue explains why the Trump administration may trust the kingdom to continue its tacit cooperation with Israel. Mazaher Koruzhde and Eric Lob examine why Saudi Arabia did not seriously try to end the Gaza war as it had 50 years earlier, when it used an oil embargo and production cuts to punish Western support for Israel in its conflict with Arab states.
Koruzhde and Lob contend that after the Saudi actions of 1973–74 shocked the American economy, a hegemonic coalition of governmental and private-sector elites in the United States and Saudi Arabia developed a business-security structure that prevented Riyadh from punishing the West over the Gaza war. Their analysis shows how the transnational investment bloc integrated the kingdom into the US-led global capitalist economy and substantially constrained Saudi leverage. “Solidarity with the Palestinians, which had once allowed Saudi Arabia and other Arab Gulf states to connect with their societies through a shared moral commitment, was replaced with geoeconomic positioning as investment hubs for US-aligned transnational capital,” they argue. Given this long-term development, Washington may not need a formal Saudi-Israeli accord to keep Riyadh aligned with its priorities.
However, Trump’s Thursday morning social-media post suggests he may demand that Saudi Arabia sign the Abraham Accords in return for the agreement. An article in Middle East Policy by Niv Farago, examining the history of American nuclear relations in the region as well as Riyadh’s relations with China and Russia, argues in favor of a deal that includes “US-run enrichment and reprocessing facilities on Saudi soil as part of the kingdom’s plans to upgrade its capacity for electric-power generation.” If Washington were to bend to the wishes of Israeli hawks and try to prevent Riyadh from building a civilian program, Farago contends, “Israel and the United States risk losing influence over the trajectory of the Saudi nuclear program to Russia and China.”
Implicit throughout Farago’s analysis is the assumption that a US-Saudi deal would include Riyadh’s signing the Abraham Accords. However, he does raise questions about whether Israel actually wants to bear the responsibility of formal relations. “While the Israelis are eager to reap the political and economic benefits of normalization with a key Arab and Muslim country, they have reservations about its costs,” he writes. “These include the kingdom’s demands that Israel end its operations in Gaza, advance toward Palestinian statehood, and accept an independent Saudi nuclear fuel cycle.” Therefore, Trump’s demand for normalization may not have a straightforward solution, as Israeli critics could demand further concessions in return.
Farago’s concerns about Chinese and Russian influence in Saudi Arabia find support in an article by Xiaoyu Wang, Salman K. Al-Dhafeeire, and Degang Sun, who trace the kingdom’s growing strategic autonomy. They show that Riyadh’s autonomy has led to a deeper relationship with China and compelled the United States to restore arms sales, deepen technological cooperation, and maintain troops in the kingdom. An article by Ghulam Ali in the summer issue further explores the increasing Saudi engagement with the Asia Pacific. Given these developments, the reported 30-year nuclear deal would help Washington pull Riyadh back toward its orbit, expand opportunities for American companies, and require the United States to make a long-term commitment to Saudi Arabia.
The American interest in coming to terms with Riyadh has also been driven by the Iran War. As Gawdat Bahgat demonstrates in his article in the summer issue, although Gulf states can develop other means to export energy resources to the world, there are few options to solve the slowdown in the Strait of Hormuz even in the medium term. The damage from the war as analyzed by Bahgat could be forcing Washington to placate Saudi Arabia by speeding up what should be a complicated agreement on the nuclear program.
While these articles take seriously the Saudi interest in developing a peaceful nuclear program, Robert Mason reminds us of the security concerns stemming from proliferation. What if the Iran War pushes Saudi Arabia toward weaponization in the face of a potentially nuclear-armed neighbor?
Mason examines the potential for the Middle East to become a zone that excludes not just nuclear arms but all weapons of mass destruction. He advocates a gradual process that includes four key components: an American security guarantee for Israel in return for its eventual transition away from nuclear arms; a new US-led nuclear deal with Iran as a platform for further diplomacy; Washington’s upholding the nonproliferation “gold standard” as a pillar of regional policy; and the removal of US nuclear weapons from Turkey. But he acknowledges that the process will “continue to be dominated by uncertainty, competition, and the potential for rapid escalation and spillover from conflict.”
Middle East Policy, Summer 2026
Special Double Issue!
AMERICA’S WAR ON IRAN
Signals, Red Lines, and Collision: The Israel-Iran Spiral and US Intervention
Buğra Sari—open access!
Trump’s Transactional Diplomacy: Breakthrough or Breakdown?
Guilain Denoeux | Robert Springborg—open access!
Between Ideology and Strategy: The Iranian Revolution and the Reconfiguration of Middle Eastern Security
Alabbas F. Alsudani—open access!
Iran’s Forward Defense in Sub-Saharan Africa
Ariel Limanya Limbu | Ronen A. Cohen—open access!
CONSEQUENCES IN THE GULF
Crisis in the Strait of Hormuz: What Lies Ahead?
Gawdat Bahgat—free to read!
GCC-Asia Pacific Energy Nexus: Navigating Shifts in Demand and Geopolitics
Umud Shokri—open access!
Outwardly Strong, Internally Brittle: Dissecting the MBS Regime
Mohammed Ayoob—free to read!
POLITICAL CONVULSIONS OVER PALESTINE
New Political Actors in Palestine: The Digital Efficacy of Gen Z
Abdalraheem S.H. Shobaki | Mahmoud S.H. Shobaki
Between Fatigue and Fear: West Bank Student Solidarity During the Gaza War
Mert Öztürk / Oqab Jabali
Explaining Saudi Arabia’s Inaction During the Gaza War: Why No Oil Embargo?
Mazaher Koruzhde | Eric Lob—free to read!
From Palestine Ally to Zionist Partner: India-Israel Relations, 2014–2025
Yücel Bulut—open access!
REBUILDING AND RECKONING IN SYRIA
A Heuristic Equation of Transformation, Justice, and Violence in Post-Assad Syria
Zeynep Banu Dalaman—free to read!
Federalism in Post-Assad Syria: Toward Durable Peace in a Pluralist Society
Dilan Okcuoglu—open access!
REGIONAL SOCIAL & ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE
Cryptocurrency Regulation in MENA: From Prohibition to Conditional Legalization
Bassant Hassib | Fatimah Ayad
Fallen Cedar: Lebanon’s Debt Diplomacy, 2015–2020
Kevin Rosier
Plastics Pollution in the Gulf Countries: Problems and Policy Solutions
Richard Rutter et al.
Constructing Social Cohesion in Qatar: National Vision, Strategy, and Constitution
Logan Cochrane et al.
THE ATTRACTIVE POWER OF EAST ASIA
Saudi Arabia’s Deepening Engagement with Asia-Pacific Nations
Ghulam Ali
China’s Hajj-Related Infrastructure Diplomacy with Saudi Arabia
Song Niu | Danyu Wang
Chinese-Arab Scientific Cooperation and Effectiveness
Minglian Long, Yijia Luo, Yi Zhang
BOOK REVIEWS
Lynch, America’s Middle East
Reviewed by Yasir Kuoti
Denoeux, Springborg, and Alaoui, Making Aid Work
Reviewed by Naomi Sakr
Momeni, The Presidential Difference and Iran’s Foreign Policy Under Khatami from 1997 to 2005
Reviewed by Mahmood Monshipouri
Bajoghli et al., How Sanctions Work
Reviewed by Bahram P. Kalviri
Donelli, Power Competition in the Red Sea
Reviewed by Riccardo Gasco
Brownlee and Ghiabi, States Without People
Reviewed by İlhan Bilici
Karam, The Middle East in 1958
Reviewed by Elifnur Düzsöz
Uysal, Class, Capital, State, and Late Development
Reviewed by Yusuf Murteza
Greenberg, The Long War of Ideas
Reviewed by A.R. Joyce