As Iran brutalizes protesters and clings to power, and post-Assad Syria contends with uprisings in minority communities, an open-access analysis in Middle East Policy argues that Washington has forged a new model for stabilizing collapsed states: elevating “powerful actors who can impose political and social order, backed by an emerging Council of the Middle East comprised of the leading Gulf states, Turkey, and Israel.” While the era of democracy promotion was too costly, the authors contend, the new agenda will perpetuate cycles of repression.
The Winter 2025–26 Middle East Policy features analyses of US-Saudi relations in light of China’s increasing influence; the new order in the Red Sea (open access); the risks of a Turkey-Israel military standoff in Syria; the Israeli peace movement; the likelihood of failure in the detente between Turkey and Kurdish nationalists; Ankara’s crackdown on the opposition; and many other issues of vital interest. Also available are our special issues, The Israel-Iran War and The October 7 Emergencies. If you find this newsletter useful, please forward to others you believe will benefit, and please follow us on the social media platforms X, Bluesky, and LinkedIn.
In their analysis of the new paradigm for restoring political order in failed Arab states, Guilain Denoeux and Robert Springborg show that the Trump administration has been grasping for solutions to the splintering of Gaza, Syria, Libya, Sudan, and Lebanon. Those states and others like them “have over the past two decades become thoroughly ‘militianized,’” the authors write. “We use that label to refer to states that have experienced…internal reconfigurations, reflected in precipitous declines in institutional capacities, autonomy, and sovereignty.”
Denoeux and Springborg assert that the new approach to addressing these states privileges order instead of the rights of citizens. There are two prongs to ensure this. The first entails “reaching out to whomever the United States perceives to be the toughest of the coercive agents competing for power within failing or failed states, then taking its side to subdue challengers.” A key example is Ahmed al-Sharaa, seen as able to clamp down on militianization and unify the Syrian state. Indeed, over the last week, al-Sharaa’s forces have waged deadly battles against Kurdish fighters in the country’s northeast.
The second prong allows the United States to keep its distance from these state-building projects. A de facto Council of the Middle East, modeled on the Concert of Europe, maintains a balance of power among the member states while trying to repress the “revolutionary ferment” of Arab popular movements. Denoeux and Springborg see the Abraham Accords between Gulf states and Israel as helping crystallize this council, which also includes Turkey.
Once the authors have laid out the mechanics of the new paradigm, they examine key cases where we can see this at work. These examples indicate that the United States and its partners in the Council of the Middle East are identifying strongmen who have the capacity to restore order and prevent conflict from spreading across borders. Denoeux and Springborg lament that while this may satisfy Washington, committing to the new approach “would represent a radical departure from international norms and practices.”
The article acknowledges that the earlier period of forever wars and democracy promotion was unsustainable. “There is much to be said for the core rationale behind the new preferences, which is that any functioning state is better than statelessness and the chaos and unpredictability it yields,” Denoeux and Springborg allow. “Only a government that holds and wields power, controls territory and borders, and can enforce decisions that are binding on individuals, political actors, and communities can possibly overcome the centrifugal forces across the region.”
However, the authors identify “two fundamental contradictions at the heart of the nascent approach to re-establishing political order in the Middle East”:
- Israel is a necessary member of the Council of the Middle East, but its interests likely diverge from the rest of the putative members. While they are seeking to impose order, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fears that these states will grow powerful. Israel therefore “is disinclined to work with others and depends on instability and weak state authority to ensure its hegemony.”
- The failed states were already subject to unaccountable militia leaders. While the new paradigm seeks to elevate one over others, “picking what in essence is most likely to be a powerful militia to impose order is to double down on a failed strategy of relying on authoritarianism to contain social, economic, and political discontent.”
Denoeux and Springborg thus end their piece with an appeal to break this cycle. “The previous model of rebuilding nation-states on principles of inclusion, compromise, reconciliation, accountability, and citizenship was flawed,” they observe. “Revising the process to make it more incremental, more responsive to citizens, and more autonomous from the strategic and economic interests of powerful external actors—whether the United States, Europe, or members of the potential Council of the Middle East—offers better prospects for long-term success than backing their proxies.”
Middle East Policy, Winter 2025
THE REGIONAL REORDERING
From Rebuilding to Restoring Political Order: A New Agenda for Failed Arab States
Guilain Denoeux | Robert Springborg—open access!
Saudi Arabia’s US-China Hedging Strategy and Its Regional Impact
Xiaoyu Wang | Salman K. Al-Dhafeeire | Degang Sun
Maritime Disruption in Yemen: The Making of a Hybrid Red Sea Order
Federico Donelli—open access!
The Struggle for Syria: Strategic Rivalry and the Risks of Escalation
Buğra Sari | Avnihan Kirişik
THE STRUGGLE FOR PALESTINE
The Israeli Peace Movement in a Time of Crisis
Natalya Philippova—free to read!
The Role of Postage Stamps in Palestinian National Identity and History
Ido Zelkovitz | Yehiel Limor—open access!
TURKISH NATIONALISM AND DOMESTIC POLITICS
Why the New Turkey-PKK Peace Process Is Likely to Fail
Michael M. Gunter
Turkey’s March 19 Protests: An End to Competitive Authoritarianism?
Göktürk Tüysüzoğlu
Athlete Queens of Modern Turkey: Beauty Pageants and Modernization
Muhammet Nurullah Çakmak
Countering Extremism in Iraq: The Influence of Ali Sistani
Hogr Tarkhani | Isaac Andakian
BOOK REVIEWS
Sareta Ashraph, Carmen Cheung Ka-Man, and Joana Cook, Holding ISIL Accountable: Prosecuting Crimes in Iraq and Syria
Reviewed by Usman Anwar | Muhammad Atif
Samer Bakkour, The End of the Middle East Peace Process: The Failure of US Diplomacy
Reviewed by Hamdullah Baycar