The Fadeout of the Pax Americana in the Middle East

For two centuries, external great powers and their rivalries dominated and manipulated the Middle East. Eventually, the United States emerged as the main regulator of its affairs. Now the interests and interactions of countries within the region itself are the primary drivers of trends and events there. America’s primacy in the Middle East is withering as it responds to domestic frustration with failed military interventions in West Asia, shifts its attention to East Asia, competes with the region in global oil and gas markets, and loses the confidence of the region’s major actors in its willingness to protect them. A complex new geopolitical geometry is emerging among countries in a region no longer constrained by deference to external powers.