Syria’s new government, led by Islamists who overthrew President Bashar al-Assad, faces severe challenges, from trying to unify the former rebels, to bloody clashes among minority groups and former regime holdouts, to the jockeying of external powers seeking to shape the Levant’s future. An article in the new Middle East Policy features interviews with the group that defeated the regime, highlighting Syrians’ rejection of Iranian influence, aspirations for regional alliances, and pragmatic approaches to governance.
Middle East Policy has just published its Summer 2025 journal, featuring 10 original articles investigating Iran’s existential struggle, Syria’s regime change and Hezbollah’s money trail, the Israeli government’s domestic and regional backlash, and the strategies of middle powers. Six pieces and one book review are free to read, even without a subscription.
The new article on Syria is based on discussions that the author, Rasim Koç, conducted with 123 activists, scholars, and members of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the former al-Qaeda affiliate now charged with salvaging a workable country. These Syrians reveal their religious devotion, their goals in shaping a new state, and their understanding of the regional powers surrounding them.
An imam from a mosque in Idlib, where rebel groups survived in a quasi-state while building the political and military strength to take Damascus, emphasizes to Koç the centrality of religion:
Islam has been our greatest source of support. Thanks to it, we have been able to stand firm. Trust among people has been built through their loyalty to Islam. Our understanding of morality comes from it. Islam is not just an ideology of resistance; it is also the source of our rebirth.
However, a worker for HTS’s social-services arm is quick to underscore that the group recognizes the country’s social diversity. “HTS embraces a moderate understanding of Islam,” this resident of Idlib asserts. “Syria has different groups and lifestyles, and our primary goal is to create a constitution that accommodates all of them.”
Still, Koç warns in his fascinating account,
The interviews reveal divisions regarding the country’s future. Some advocate for a democratic, though not secular, state. Others insist on Islamic law (Sharia) as the foundation of the legal system. There is also a growing effort to frame the abuses of the Assad regime as driven by Alawite domination. This narrative risks deepening divides between that Shiite sect and Sunnis, further entrenching mistrust and fueling potential conflict. It reflects a broader ideological struggle between secular and religious visions of governance.
The article also portrays a group that must think through not just the kind of state Syria should be but also the kind of neighborhood it will likely be part of. “We constantly compared Muslim countries, weighing their strengths and weaknesses,” says one former fighter. “Two models stood out: Turkey, for its economic power and development, and Saudi Arabia, for its implementation of Islamic principles.”
However, HTS has come to realize that those governments may not be able to help Damascus contend with Israel. As Koç acknowledges:
Neither Ankara nor Riyadh has the capacity to halt Israel’s military expansion into Syria, which hinders the potential for long-term stability. And while Turkey remains the most powerful and active neighbor, its influence over Syria’s reconstruction is both crucial and complex. Along with key Arab states, Turkey seeks to shape Syria’s future—primarily to exclude Iran—but this adds another layer of tension to an already fragile geopolitics.
Koç’s interviews were conducted in the lead-up to and the early days after the Assad regime’s collapse. The next phase will help determine if HTS can make any progress. “Syrians among the victorious rebels aspire to build a state that reflects their religious and cultural values while learning from past mistakes,” the author concludes. “However, achieving this will require careful management of internal divisions and external pressures.”
Middle East Policy’s summer edition is anchored by Thomas Juneau’s open-access analysis of the Islamic Republic’s “annus horribilis” in 2024 and Annie Tracy Samuel’s investigation of how Washington and the US media conjured an Iranian enemy in the 1980s, which is free to read for the next six weeks.
From there, the journal continues its coverage of Israel with an examination of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political turmoil at home and military and diplomatic challenges abroad. Guy Ziv reveals the political power of Israeli reservists; Emir Hadžikadunić and Marko Ćuže conduct a sweeping probe of Netanyahu’s speeches over the first year of the war to understand his belief system and how this has affected his approach to retaliation for the October 7 attacks; and Mahmood Monshipouri, Manochehr Dorraj, and John Fields show that Netanyahu and his far-right government have largely foreclosed the potential for expanding normalization with Arab states.
Among the open-access articles in the Summer 2025 issue are Iftah Burman and Yehuda Blanga’s examination of Hezbollah’s criminal enterprise from 1985 to 2005; Chen Kertcher and Gadi Hitman’s explanation of how middle powers like Israel and Syria try to achieve their interests; and Fred H. Lawson and Matteo Legrenzi’s analysis of the shifting relationship of the United States and United Arab Emirates, a dyadic protectorate that has allowed the smaller state to slowly gain confidence in forging its own path.
In addition to the journal’s summer installment, Middle East Policy’s special issue, The Israel-Iran War, continues to be available for free, even for those readers without a subscription. The mix of new and archival articles provides a comprehensive look at how the conflict developed, and how it could have been avoided.
Middle East Policy, Summer 2025
THE LONG ARC OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC
Iran’s Annus Horribilis in 2024: Beaten, but Not Defeated
Thomas Juneau—open access!
Conjuring an Enemy: US Discourse and Policy on Iran, 1979–88
Annie Tracy Samuel—free to read!
ISRAELI POLITICS, AT HOME AND ABROAD
Military Reservists and the Resistance to Netanyahu’s Legal Overhaul
Guy Ziv
The Impact of Benjamin Netanyahu’s Beliefs on Israel’s War against the Axis of Resistance
Emir Hadžikadunić, Marko Ćuže—free to read!
The Gaza War and the Future of the Abraham Accords
Mahmood Monshipouri, Manochehr Dorraj, John Fields
WAR AND REBUILDING IN THE LEVANT
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham: Voices of Syria’s New Leaders
Rasim Koç
Lessons from the Syria-Hezbollah Criminal Syndicate, 1985–2005
Iftah Burman, Yehuda Blanga—open access!
THE RESOLVE OF SMALL STATES
Middle Powers and Limited Balancing: Syria and the Post‐October 7 Wars
Chen Kertcher, Gadi Hitman—open access!
Antinomies of Alignment Redux: The United Arab Emirates and the United States
Fred H. Lawson, Matteo Legrenzi—open access!
The Making of a Ruler: Haitham bin Tariq on the Omani Throne
Joseph Albert Kéchichian
BOOK REVIEWS
Omar Ashour, How ISIS Fights: Military Tactics in Iraq, Syria, Libya and Egypt
Reviewed by Manoug Antaby
Birol Başkan, The Politics of Islam: The Muslim Brothers and the State in the Arab Gulf
Reviewed by Gökhan Çınkara
Mohammad Dawood Sofi, The Tunisian Revolution and Democratic Transition: The Role of al-Nahdah
Reviewed by Mohammad Irfan Shah
Hilmi Ozan Özavcı, Dangerous Gifts: Imperialism, Security, and Civil Wars in the Levant, 1798–1864
Reviewed by Hasim Tekines
Max Boot, Reagan: His Life and Legend
Reviewed by A.R. Joyce—free to read!